http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/news/tv/la-et-tv-premiere-20101004,0,5743111.story

New TV shows fail to stand out in ratings
None of the broadcast networks' rookie series has cracked the top 10, 
and 'Lone Star' and 'My Generation' have bitten the dust. But returning 
programs and NFL games have fared well.

By Scott Collins
Los Angeles Times

October 4, 2010


Some programs this fall are delivering very strong ratings. Just not new 
programs. If TV executives want encouragement from the numbers, they 
have to turn to football and returning series.

Two weeks into the fall TV season, the broadcast networks have gotten 
off to one of their most sluggish starts ever. For the first time in at 
least five years, not a single new show has cracked the top 10 either 
among total viewers or the advertising-friendly demographic of adults 
aged 18 to 49, according to the Nielsen Co. Even CBS' remake of "Hawaii 
Five-0," with its familiar brand name and 10 p.m. Monday time slot, has 
failed to sizzle and has tumbled compared with "CSI: Miami" last year.

Then there are the outright bombs. After two airings Fox axed its 
critically acclaimed drama about a Texas con man, "Lone Star." A pair of 
episodes was likewise all it took for ABC to yank the critically 
unheralded youth soap "My Generation." Industry watchers predict that 
ABC's legal drama "The Whole Truth" and NBC's Jimmy Smits vehicle 
"Outlaw" will be next on the road to oblivion. As a result, Fox — the 
No. 1 network among young adults for several years running — and ABC 
both saw their premiere-week ratings slide by double digits compared 
with a year ago.

As is customary, poor marketing has been cited as a factor in the demise 
of some new shows, especially "Lone Star." In that case, network 
promotion experts were presented the difficult task of trying to 
persuade a recession-weary public to care about a hotshot young crook 
who two-timed his wife and bilked people out of their life savings.

But there may be a simpler explanation: The new shows just aren't that 
good. Even before the season started, TV executives and critics alike 
grumbled that the freshman class lacked any series with breakout 
potential. Viewers seem to agree, at least so far.

"There simply weren't many shows with positive preseason buzz," said 
Steve Sternberg, a veteran TV analyst who writes a subscription-based 
newsletter for media buyers. "I keep reading how the press is surprised 
about 'Lone Star,' but I don't know a single one of my peers who thought 
it would do well."

The legacy networks also face a tougher job these days because cable 
rivals now churn out so much original programming during the summer, 
blunting the effect of the broadcasters' marketing push. In July, TNT's 
"Rizzoli & Isles" — the kind of star-driven crime franchise broadcasters 
used to own exclusively — set a record as the most-watched cable series 
launch ever, with 7.6 million total viewers.

"Fewer and fewer people are watching each broadcast net during the 
summer," Sternberg said. "Their stubborn refusal to cross-promote one 
another's shows, as cable has done so effectively for years, is the main 
reason ratings aren't higher for new shows. I'll bet that most people 
never even heard of more than two or three of the new series."

Yet while the new shows have clearly disappointed, there are still 
positive signs for the networks. Chief among them: The overall erosion 
in viewership for broadcast TV appears to be slowing at last. The five 
over-the-air, English-language networks (ABC, CBS, Fox, NBC and CW) are 
still down in total viewers compared with year-ago figures, but it's by 
the smallest amount — 2% — in at least four seasons.

Viewers have turned out in droves for favorite returning shows, such as 
Fox's high school musical "Glee," which is soaring to record ratings in 
its second season. Meanwhile, NFL games on CBS, NBC and Fox, as well as 
ESPN, are hitting all-time highs.

"Many viewers opted for familiar favorites versus the newbies that 
launched against them," said Shari Anne Brill, an independent media 
analyst who pointed to the hard-fought battleground of 9 p.m. Mondays, 
where "Lone Star" got crushed against ABC's "Dancing With the Stars" and 
CBS' comedy block.

CBS has done a particularly good job of hanging on to its audience. 
Ratings for its premiere week were flat compared with last year's among 
young adults, even though it took a big hit by downgrading " CSI: NY" to 
Friday nights. One savvy move that paid off was switching the hit sitcom 
"The Big Bang Theory" from Mondays to Thursdays, giving the network a 
successful comedy block on the latter night for the first time in decades.

NBC was the only network to show premiere-week growth, up 11% in young 
adults. True, much of that was due to last year's disastrous experiment 
putting Jay Leno in prime time, which made it relatively easy to put up 
better numbers this time around.

And it's far too early to count out all the new series. "No Ordinary 
Family" could still grow into a solid performer for ABC; ditto the 
sitcom "Raising Hope" for Fox and NBC's "Law & Order: Los Angeles."

As Brill pointed out, "Successful early returns in Week 1 are not 
necessarily a predictor for success.… There have been many shows with 
great premises and promising pilots that were not executed well in 
subsequent episodes. Remember 'Flash Forward'? And," she added, 
referring to a notorious NBC bomb spun off the massive hit "Friends," 
"how about that show 'Joey'?"

-- 
========================================
George Antunes, Political Science Dept
University of Houston; Houston, TX 77204
Voice: 713-743-3923  Fax: 713-743-3927
Mail: antunes at uh dot edu

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