DIRECTV Can't Save TiVo By Phillip Swann TVPredictions.com
http://www.tvpredictions.com/tivod082511.htm Washington, D.C. (August 25, 2011) -- TiVo yesterday reported that it lost a net of 33,000 DVR subscribers in the second quarter, dropping its overall sub total to 1.9 million. While the decline was less severe than in previous reports (it lost 88,000 subscribers in the first quarter and 125,000 in last year's second quarter), the consistent losses over the last five years now looks like the equivalent of death by a thousand cuts. To put the company's woes in perspective, TiVo had 4.4 million subscribers in 2006; it now has 1.9 million. That means that the DVR company has lost more subscribers in the last five years than it currently has. For TiVo, which once was projected by Wall Street analysts to be an industry giant, the fall in fortunes is staggering. Over the last several years, I have written many times why I believe the air has long been squeezed from the TiVo balloon. I won't bore you here with past analysis, but you can click TiVo Blames the HDTV; TiVo Loses 2.4M Subs In 4 Years; or TiVo Throws Hail Mary for some background. (If you use our Search feature, you can find dozens more such as this video: The Trouble With TiVo.) TiVo apologists, of which there are still quite a few, have long said that the DVR company will start to turn things around when its on-again, off-again marketing partnership with satcaster DIRECTV is restored. DIRECTV, the nation's biggest satellite TV service, helped TiVo achieve most of those 4.4 million subs during the company's first joint effort in the early to mid part of the last decade. (See TiVo Subs to Drop in 2005 for yet another excellent article on the subject.) That partnership ended in 2005, but the companies said in 2008 that they would reunite for a new HD DVR. Now three years later -- and massive TiVo sub losses later -- it appears that the DIRECTV/TiVo HD DVR will finally see the light of day. TiVo CEO Tom Rogers said yesterday that the set-top is getting close to launch and that boxes are actually being manufactured. Longtime TiVo observer, the web site Zatz Not Funny, reports that we might see the set-top next month, although the site cautions that it will likely not have some of the bells and whistles available on TiVo's current retail product. But even if it did, it wouldn't matter. When DIRECTV finally offers a TiVo HD DVR to its subscriber base, I suspect that only a small percentage will sign up. Why? For many veteran industry analysts and Wall Street types, TiVo still has a golden name. The company was one of the first two companies to launch a DVR, way back in 1997. But for millions of Americans who don't follow the industry that closely -- and/or are not old enough to remember that TiVo was once mentioned in the same breath with companies like Amazon and Google -- the TiVo DVR is nothing special. It's just another DVR and DVR subscribers aren't going out of their way to get one just because it has a TiVo logo. And they are not going to pay a premium price to get a TiVo if DIRECTV demands one, as is suspected. If given a choice, DIRECTV subscribers would take a cheaper, generic HD DVR over a more expensive TiVo HD DVR. So, in my view -- and I have been studying TiVo now for nearly 15 years -- DIRECTV won't save TiVo. And it's doubtful that anything can. _______________________________________________ Medianews mailing list [email protected] http://lists.etskywarn.net/mailman/listinfo/medianews
