Behind the TV Channel Blackouts: Stalling Profits

By RYAN NAKASHIMA
Associated Press

July 15, 2012

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/tv-channel-blackouts-stalling-profits-16782296


LOS ANGELES (AP) Channel blackouts such as the one that resulted from 
the recent spat between Viacom and DirecTV have become far more common 
over the past three years. Consumers can thank the changing dynamics of 
the entertainment industry.

Media companies such as Viacom and Disney have become steadily more 
profitable since the gloom of the recession lifted in early 2010. But 
the cable and satellite providers that pay to carry their channels have 
seen profitability virtually stagnate as they fight each other for 
subscribers.

The squeeze has prompted distributors such as Dish and DirecTV to revolt 
against higher programming costs. Consumers are left in the crossfire.

DirecTV subscribers haven't been able to view Viacom channels such as 
Comedy Central, MTV, Nickelodeon and VH1 since Tuesday, when the two 
companies failed to reach a contract agreement over content fees. The 
companies are still negotiating, but the channel blackout for consumers 
has continued through the weekend.

The industry's cost pressures mean such fights are likely to continue.

"I think this is the new normal," says Barton Crockett, an analyst with 
Lazard Capital. "It's getting to be a little bit more of a battle 
between life and death for these guys."

The rising number of disputes is largely the result of the stagnant 
market for pay television. Simply put, there aren't many new households 
being formed in the sluggish economy, and those who want to pay for TV 
already do. Some 101 million American households subscribe to cable or 
satellite service. That's about 87 percent of homes, a proportion that 
has remained unchanged since 2009, according to Leichtman Research 
Group, which studies media and entertainment.

TV distributors pay media companies a few cents per channel per 
subscriber each month. In turn, they try to sell packages of channels 
for more. As costs for those channels rise, so do monthly service bills, 
but not always by enough to offset the increasing fees cable and 
satellite providers are paying to media companies. In addition, 
distributors spend money on special promotions to woo subscribers from 
competitors. As a result, some companies' expenses are rising faster 
than revenue.

That has prompted cable and satellite service providers to fight back 
against cost increases, even when it means blacking out channels until 
they can eke out a better deal. Satellite TV companies like Dish and 
DirecTV are in an even tighter squeeze than cable companies because they 
can't make up for higher costs by providing Internet or phone service.

Major cable and satellite TV distributors DirecTV, Dish, Time Warner 
Cable, Cablevision and Charter have increased profitability over the 
last few years, but that's tapered off, according to an Associated Press 
review of FactSet data.

Back in December 2009, they kept 15 cents of profit after subtracting 
operating expenses from every dollar of services they sold. That grew to 
19 cents last September. But since, cable and satellite companies 
haven't found a way to wring more profitability from their business.

Meanwhile, prominent media companies that produce and bankroll the shows 
— Disney, Time Warner, News Corp., Viacom, Discovery, CBS and AMC — have 
kept expanding their profit share. They grew operating profits from 16 
cents to 19 cents per dollar over the same period. That kept climbing to 
20 cents per dollar by March.

Media companies have posted gains in part by extracting higher fees from 
distributors in bare-knuckle contract negotiations. Those gains have 
come directly at the distributors' expense.

To be sure, each company is different. Disney, for instance, has assets 
such as theme parks that skew the analysis.

But distributors are no longer enjoying a post-recession bounce. The 
media companies are. These diverging fortunes have coincided with an 
outsized revolt by distributors.

In the first six and a half months of this year, 22 fee disputes 
involving the price of broadcast TV signals have caused channel 
blackouts, according to the American TV Alliance. That's up from 15 
blackouts in all of 2011. There were just four in 2010.

Dish Network Corp. dropped AMC Networks Inc. channels on July 1, two 
weeks ahead of the premiere of the final season of "Breaking Bad" on 
Sunday. DirecTV dropped more than a dozen Viacom Inc. channels on July 
10. Time Warner Cable Inc. gave up on a Fox Sports channel covering the 
San Diego Padres in April and on July 9 it let 15 Hearst television 
stations go dark, complaining of a four-fold fee hike demand.

Distributors say they must hold the line on their biggest expense 
—programming— even if they risk having customers defect.

"I don't think the industry can sustain this kind of behavior," says 
DirecTV's executive vice president of strategy, Derek Chang, who accuses 
Viacom of trying to raise rates by 30 percent. "Ultimately, it'll drive 
costs up to the end user."

Viacom argues that DirecTV is out of step with higher-paying competitors 
now that its seven-year-old contract has ended.

Amid the war of words, one thing is clear: the price of TV is going up.

People already have been paying more and more. In April and May, 1,369 
Americans who were surveyed by the Leichtman Research Group reported 
that their monthly TV bill rose an average of 7 percent from a year ago, 
to $78.63. That's largely in line with annual single-digit percentage 
increases historically.

What's different for distributors lately is that they also have to pay 
for broadcast TV station signals, which they used to get for free in 
exchange for carrying upstart new channels. In recent years, 
broadcasters like CBS have demanded cash from TV distributors for 
broadcast signals, even though consumers who go through the trouble of 
setting up an antenna could get them over the air at no charge.

Such "retransmission fees" are expected to double industry-wide from 
$1.8 billion this year to $3.6 billion in 2017, according to research 
firm SNL Kagan.

"That's an expense that really didn't exist five or 10 years ago," says 
Leichtman Research Group's president Bruce Leichtman. "That's putting 
the biggest stress on the system."

The battle ends up hurting consumers the most.

Russell Hawkins, a 36-year-old food company marketer in Clinton, Mich., 
says that because of the dispute between Dish and AMC, he's decided to 
end his four-year relationship with Dish and has asked his Internet 
provider, Comcast Corp., to hook up cable TV in a week. He had no 
problems paying $70 a month, but the prospect of losing AMC was too much.

"They can't be dropping channels on people," he says.

Now he'll save $40 a month by getting Internet and phone service 
bundled, and Comcast threw in HBO and Showtime for 2 years for free. His 
friends are contacting him about how to get the same deal. "A lot of 
others are going to do the same thing."

David Jacobs, a 48-year-old social media consultant in Damascus, Ore., 
says he signed up with Dish just six months ago to pay for upwards of 
100 channels for around $50 a month. But now, he's locked into a 
two-year contract and will have to pay hefty penalties if he cancels. 
He'll now have to scramble to find a way to watch the premiere of 
"Breaking Bad," his favorite show, which airs on AMC.

AMC has offered to stream the episode free online for Dish subscribers. 
But he's not sure what to do. His options include paying extra for a 
download from Apple's iTunes or Amazon.com, or resorting to an 
unauthorized download from a pirate site.

"These are big multimedia corporations," Jacobs says. "But me — the 
little guy who's struggling every day to get by and live life — I'm left 
holding the bag. That's what makes me the most angry."

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