*SpaceX, Google and Virgin Revive Buzz Over Satellite Internet *
*By Alan Boyle **
**NBC News**
**
**Jan 21, 2015*
http://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/spacex-google-virgin-revive-buzz-over-satellite-internet-n289721
SEATTLE — SpaceX founder Elon Musk says he'll spend billions of dollars
to make the Internet available via a constellation of 4,000 satellites —
and use the revenue to build a city on Mars. Google is kicking in close
to a billion dollars to support Musk's plan
<http://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/liftoff-spacex-gets-1-billion-google-fidelity-n289866>.
And the Virgin Group's Richard Branson is joining in another
multibillion-dollar venture
<http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/virgin-voyage/virgin-qualcomm-back-onewebs-satellite-venture-n287051>
to provide Internet access from space.
All this buzz marks the revival of a decades-old data dream — but maybe
it's a dream whose time has finally come.
"We're at the point now with the technology —and with the costs coming
down and the market maturing, driven by mobile devices, the need is
there. It's just a case of what the business model looks like," said
Christopher Baugh, president and founder of NSR <http://www.nsr.com/>, a
satellite industry consulting firm. "In the 20 years I've been following
this, I've not seen the buzz like it is now."
Google leapfrogs cable?
CNBC
Twenty years is about how long it's been since the buzz over satellite
Internet access was nearly as widespread. Back in the 1990s, ventures
such as Teledesic, Iridium, Globalstar, Celestri and SkyBridge aimed to
build huge satellite constellations to beam Internet and voice data from
the sky. Of those five companies, only Iridium
<https://www.iridium.com/default.aspx> and Globalstar
<http://www.globalstar.com/en/> are still in business today, with
scaled-back ambitions.
Few visions were as ambitious as Teledesic's was in 1994, when Bill
Gates, Craig McCaw and other industry heavyweights backed a $9 billion
plan to put up to 840 data-swapping satellites in low Earth orbit
<http://www.astronautix.com/craft/teldesic.htm>, or LEO. Only one
satellite was ever launched, and the venture flopped before it really
got started.
Musk referred to the Teledesic experience last week when he announced
the launch of a Seattle-based operation
<http://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/spacexs-elon-musk-touts-seattle-office-satellite-venture-n285281>
to put 4,000 Internet-beaming satellites into LEO over the next 15 years
or so.
"One of the mistakes that Teledesic made was not assuming that
terrestrial networks would get much better over time," Musk said during
a Seattle Center reception, according to a transcript of the talk
<http://shitelonsays.com/transcript/spacex-seattle-2015-2015-01-15>. "So
we need to make sure that the system we design is good, even taking into
account significant improvements in the terrestrial systems."
Musk said a "useful version one" of the project could be put into place
in five years, with a second and third version rolled out over five-year
intervals.
Two competing systems?
The venture backed by Branson, known as OneWeb, is also aiming for a
quick start and gradual build-out. OneWeb's founder, Greg Wyler, is said
to have spoken with Musk about joining in his company's effort to build
a 648-satellite LEO constellation
<http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20150115005196/en/OneWeb-Announces-Plans-Launch-Satellite-Constellation-Bring#.VL7AEivF-PY>
— and make Internet connectivity available to the half of the world's
population (or more) that doesn't currently have it.
In an interview with Bloomberg BusinessWeek
<http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2015-01-17/elon-musk-and-spacex-plan-a-space-internet>,
Musk signaled that he's going his own way. "We want a satellite that is
an order of magnitude more sophisticated than what Greg wants," Musk
said. "I think there should be two competing systems."
Branson, however, doesn't think that's the final word. "If Elon wants to
get into this area, the logical thing for him would be to tie up with
us, and if I were a betting man, I would say the chances of us working
together rather than separately would be much higher," he told Bloomberg.
OneWeb has an edge over SpaceX in at least one respect: The venture
already has a license from the International Telecommunications Union to
set up a satellite network and broadcast signals. "That's a significant
advantage, having that regulatory barrier crossed already," NSR's Baugh
said.
Wyler estimated that it would take about $2 billion and four years to
get OneWeb's constellation up and running. Branson's Virgin Group (which
includes Virgin Mobile as well as Virgin Galactic) and Qualcomm (which
sells wireless communication products and services) are the first big
investors in OneWeb, but more are being sought.
Where Google fits in
Google is shaping up as a key player in the satellite industry
maneuvers: For months, the search-engine juggernaut has been rumored to
be investigating investment opportunities — with Wyler
<http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/why-google-might-spend-3-billion-fleet-satellites-n120256>
as well as with Branson
<http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/virgin-voyage/google-virgin-galactic-keep-mum-space-talks-n130156>.
The rumors came to a head on Tuesday when SpaceX confirmed that Google
and Fidelity were investing $1 billion
<http://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/liftoff-spacex-gets-1-billion-google-fidelity-n289866>
for a nearly 10 percent stake in the rocket company. The San Jose
Mercury News said Google's share came to 7.5 percent
<http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_27358600/google-fidelity-put-1-billion-tesla-founder-musks>,
which translates to more than $750 million.
Why are so many big corporate names getting involved? Because there's a
big market to be served, and big money to be made, Baugh told NBC News.
New book spotlights the Google revolution
TODAY
"The problem with satellite technology on the user side has always been
the cost," he said. "The volume has never been high enough to drive the
cost down. We're at the point now with the technology that if a big
order is placed, the price will come down."
If SpaceX can create an all-encompassing, low-cost SatNet for global
communications, it could trump terrestrial networks, particularly in the
developing world's fast-growing but hard-to-wire markets. And Google
could benefit from having billions more people in its online marketplace.
"Certainly Google's M.O. is to have ad clicks and access to users,"
Baugh said.
Facebook and Google already have been laying plans to serve that
under-wired market with drone-based
<http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/innovation/facebook-wi-fi-drone-size-747-could-fly-2015-n210546>
and balloon-based data networks
<http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/loon-attack-google-balloon-knocks-out-power-lines-during-descent-n121676>.
Satellites represent the final frontier in the competition for
connectivity.
Today the world ... tomorrow, Mars?
Then there's the Mars connection: SpaceX is already reportedly turning a
profit, thanks to its contracts to deliver cargo to the International
Space Station
<http://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/dragon-tamed-space-station-crew-captures-spacex-cargo-ship-n284331>,
design spaceships for NASA astronauts
<http://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/boeing-spacex-win-6-8-billion-apollo-style-space-taxis-n204706>
and launch commercial satellites
<http://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/spacex-falcon-rocket-launches-asiasat-8-satellite-n172661>.
But it'll take a lot more money for Musk to realize his dream of sending
colonists to Mars and turning humanity into a multiplanet species.
That's where SpaceX's SatNet comes in.
"This is intended to be a significant amount of revenue and help fund a
city on Mars," he said during his Seattle visit. "Looking in the long
term, and saying what's needed to create a city on Mars — well, one
thing's for sure: a lot of money. So we need things that will generate a
lot of money."
SpaceX Unveils New Spacecraft
NBC News
And if Musk's dream becomes a reality, maybe there'll be yet another
SatNet rising.
"That same system we could leverage to put into a constellation on Mars,
because Mars is going to need a global communications system too, and
there's no fiber optics or wires or anything on Mars," Musk said. "We're
definitely going to need that. We're going to need high bandwidth
communications between Earth and Mars. So I think a lot of what we do in
developing an Earth-based communication system could be leveraged for
Mars as well — crazy as that may sound."
First published January 21st 2015, 8:05 am
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