Stevens Bears Down on Telecom Rewrite

By John Eggerton
Broadcasting & Cable

3/14/2006 3:25:00 PM

http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/CA6315997.html?display=Breaking+News&referral=SUPP


Senate Commerce Commitee Chairman Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) said that the 
committee would bear down and try to mark up a revise of the 1996 
Telecommunications Act sometime after Easter (April 16).

That was during a hearing Tuesday with financial analysts, who were arguing 
for clarity ASAP. Their mantra: Regulatory certainty, regulatory certainty, 
regulatory certainty.

Issues like national video franchising, cable à la carte and network 
neutrality will need to be resolved to free up the capital markets, said 
financial analysts from companies including JP Morgan, Wachovia, UBS and 
Sanford Bernstein. "Especially video franchising," said Aryeh Bourkoff of 
UBS Investment Research.

Clarity and certainty, agreed Bourkoff and Kevin Moore of Wachovia 
Securities, with the caveat that what action Washington takes be guided by 
a "light regulatory touch" and the admonition: "First do no harm."

Mandating "network neutrality," not allowing cable and other networks to 
charge third parties more for faster Internet-access speeds, is not in the 
regulatory "light touch" category. Sanford Bernstein's Craig Moffett said 
that "network neutrality" would have the unintended consequence of further 
"souring Wall Street's taste for broadband-infrastructure investments."

"Does that mean if we try to protect the consumer, we are going to hurt 
investment?" asked Stevens.

No, said Moffet, but Congress has to be careful because protecting 
investors and consumers is often the same thing. Protecting consumer choice 
means fostering investment, the Wall Streeters asserted. "That doesn't 
assume no regulation," said Moffett, only that "the most unobtrusive path 
to consumer welfare is probably the best one."

Bourkoff pointed out that cable had spent $90 billion to upgrade its plant 
for digital video, interactivity and voice, thanks to the relative 
predictability of the market.

Since then, the competition has heated up. Cable's share of pay TV has gone 
from 95% in 1994 to 63% today and down to 50% in some places, he said. 
Still, he said, cable is potentially on the cusp of its most operationally 
successful period, with bundled voice, video and data penetration close to 
20% in some markets, and his company seeing it rising to 50% by 2007.

But share prices remain near historical lows thanks to the increased 
competition and the possibility of higher acquisition costs and lower 
prices, but also thanks (though that is not the right word) to "regulatory 
uncertainty." At risk, Bourkoff said, is the $80 billion of industry debt 
waiting for a return.

"I believe it is too early to introduce regulation on key issues such as à 
la carte and net neutrality," said Bourkoff.


================================
George Antunes, Political Science Dept
University of Houston; Houston, TX 77204
Voice: 713-743-3923  Fax: 713-743-3927
antunes at uh dot edu



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