July 3, 2006

A CableCard That Hasn't Been Able to Kill the Set-Top Box
By ERIC A. TAUB
NY Times

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/03/technology/03cable.html?pagewanted=print


To spur the adoption of digital television and HDTV and rid the home of one 
more bulky consumer electronics component, cable TV operators and the 
consumer electronics industry agreed on a compelling concept: new digital 
televisions, like their analog predecessors, would be "cable ready," able 
to receive programming without a set-top box. Consumers would simply plug 
the cable into the back of the set and insert an authenticating card in a 
special slot.

Two years after the introduction of this technology, known as CableCard, 
the effort has stalled, the victim of conflicting business interests, 
manufacturing costs and a lack of consumer response. While six million 
CableCard-ready digital TV's have been sold to consumers, only 170,000 
sets, less than 3 percent, are actually using a CableCard device. The rest 
are receiving digital cable and HDTV programming the more familiar way, 
through the cable company's rented set-top box.

Frustrated by the lack of consumer interest, many television manufacturers 
have sharply cut the number of CableCard-ready models. According to Richard 
Doherty, an analyst with the market research firm the Envisioneering Group, 
80 percent fewer television models with CableCard are available this year 
than in 2005.

Sharp Electronics, which offered about 10 CableCard sets last year, now 
includes the feature only in two high-end TV's, with prices starting at 
$16,000. Royal Philips Electronics offered seven CableCard models in 2005 
but just three this year. And Sony reduced its CableCard models from four 
to two, the least expensive of which retails for more than $5,000.

"As manufacturers, we are disappointed in CableCard's rollout," said Rich 
Dinsmore, vice president for marketing at TTE Corporation, owner of the RCA 
brand. He said the card component increased the set's retail price by about 
$40, adding, "to collect that extra money in today's retail environment is 
very difficult when nobody talks about the feature in the retail store."

One factor may be a lack of incentives for cable companies to encourage 
CableCard use, since the companies collect monthly rental fees for set-top 
boxes and can also count each box as an asset on their balance sheets.

"The set-top box offers cable providers a point of control, a presence in 
the living room," said Ross Rubin, director of industry analysis for the 
NPD Group. " Comcast and Time Warner have had very good success with 
offering digital video recorders, which require a set-top box."

One problem with the current CableCard technology is its limitations. The 
system allows one-way communications only, meaning that advanced services — 
such as video-on-demand, pay-per-view and the cable operator's interactive 
program guide — still require a set-top box. Ian Olgeirson, an analyst with 
Kagan Research, said that 45 percent of the nation's cable customers used 
set-top boxes that enabled them to receive such digital services.

Two-way card technology that would work with advanced services is being 
developed, but the specifications are still being debated.

LG Electronics, Panasonic and Samsung have begun developing products that 
will work with two-way cable access cards, even though all specifications 
have not been set. Samsung expects to have the nation's first digital TV 
capable of receiving two-way services without a set-top box — a 56-inch 
rear projection model — on the market by the end of this year. Other 
manufacturers are holding off until all technical details are worked out.

"Whether it is 2007, 2008 or 2009 when key points are agreed upon, is hard 
to say," said Phil Abram, Sony's vice president for TV marketing.

Meanwhile, the one-way technology languishes, with some manufacturers 
faulting the cable industry for failing to promote and offer the product 
adequately. "It has been a little hard to get CableCard support from cable 
operators," Mr. Abram said. "Some operators have made it difficult for 
consumers to get a card and encouraged them to take a set-top box instead."

While the cable industry acknowledges that CableCard deployment has been 
low, it sees the lack of interest as an indication of consumer choice. "The 
cable operator is in the business of selling services, not hardware," said 
Neal Goldberg, general counsel for the National Cable and 
Telecommunications Association.

The Federal Communications Commission mandated that consumers be made aware 
of CableCard's limitations, Mr. Goldberg said, and the cable industry is 
following that mandate by posting information on its Web sites and 
supplying it when consumers request a card. Once consumers learn that they 
will not be able to get pay-per-view and video-on-demand with a CableCard, 
he said, many opt for a set-top box.

Yet with fewer and fewer CableCard-ready TV's, that choice may become moot. 
"The CableCard is essentially dead," said Mr. Doherty of Envisioneering. 
"It will go down in history like the Edsel."


=================================================
George Antunes                    Voice (713) 743-3923
Associate Professor               Fax   (713) 743-3927
Political Science                    Internet: antunes at uh dot edu
University of Houston
Houston, TX 77204-3011         



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