Does cell phone's impact outweigh PC's?

By Stefanie Olsen
News.com

http://news.com.com/Does+cell+phones+impact+outweigh+PCs/2100-1041_3-6097950.html

Story last modified Tue Jul 25 05:43:43 PDT 2006


SAN JOSE, Calif.--Which technology has had the most impact in the last 25 
years?

The cell phone, according to well-known IBM software developer and blogger 
Sam Ruby. Though his represents just one opinion, Ruby made a strong case 
for why the cell phone outstrips the PC in terms of effect on the world.

"It's killing the landline; it's killing watches; it's changing the camera 
business; it's changing the TV industry, the music industry," Ruby said 
Monday at the New Paradigms for Using Computers (NPUC) 2006 workshop at the 
IBM Almaden Research Center here.

"It's destroying the pay-phone industry. It's hurting the hotel industry 
and putting the squeeze on universities," he said during a talk titled 
"Teenagers on the Go." To highlight the future stability of the device, he 
added, "Teenagers love the cell phone."

Still, when it comes to hotels, members of the audience questioned cell 
phones' impact. Ruby answered that they're undermining a long-time source 
of revenue from premium phone calls.

In the future, he said, cell phones will become even more important as 
gadgets for navigation, search and entertainment. Imagine MapQuest or 
Google in your ear, Ruby said, referring to people with cell phone earbuds. 
People could use voice commands to ask for directions, check gas prices or 
find deals at the grocery store.

Ruby's discussion was framed by his experience as a parent and open-source 
software developer--he helped develop the Atom content-syndication format 
and he's presently a senior technical staff member at IBM's emerging 
technologies group. He's also father to two teens, ages 14 and 18, who are 
active on the Web.

Ruby made other projections about the future of the Web. For example, he 
said, the Web has replaced the desktop in some ways, but now the Web itself 
is in danger. Why? Ruby believes that based on usage by younger 
generations, instant messaging will usurp the Web and the phone as the 
dominant mode of communication.

To kids, e-mail is a tool for parents and teachers, Ruby said. The move 
away from e-mail will take wider hold as spam continues to pollute the 
medium, he said. Instant chat, in contrast, is the de facto technology for 
kids and teens who want to talk to friends.

"E-mail's a goner, it's just a matter of time--just the way phone service 
is," said Ruby. "But again, we all still have one."


================================
George Antunes, Political Science Dept
University of Houston; Houston, TX 77204
Voice: 713-743-3923  Fax: 713-743-3927
antunes at uh dot edu



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