HD DVR Delay Could Sting

By Linda Moss
MultiChannel News

7/31/2006

http://www.multichannel.com/article/CA6357341.html?display=Top+Stories


DirecTV Inc. could lose impatient subscribers to cable or Dish Network 
after the satellite provider’s latest delay rolling out new high-definition 
digital recording devices, a Wall Street analyst said last week.

Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst Craig Moffett said DirecTV’s churn rates 
could rise because of yet another postponement of state-of-the-art 
dual-tuner HD DVRs.

“There is obviously a limit to how long customers — who, after all, have 
just spent large amounts of money on a flat panel HDTV — will be willing to 
wait for an upgrade from DirecTV before they simply switch to a competitor 
instead,” Moffett wrote in a research note. “EchoStar and cable operators 
could benefit.”

Moffett cited a letter DirecTV is sending to customers on a wait list for 
the HD DVRs. The new set-tops — first expected early this year, and then in 
the spring — are now supposed to be available this fall. “We believe 
shortages of the combination HD DVR unit have contributed to DirecTV 
falling behind cable competitors in HD readiness,” Moffett wrote. “HDTV 
penetration of digital subscribers among cable operators appears 
significantly higher than at DirecTV.”

DirecTV spokesman Robert Mercer said the satellite provider is not that far 
off the timetable it established earlier this year for the HD DVR launch.

“We are completing some additional testing on the software to ensure that 
the box is operating smoothly when we begin shipping to consumers 
nationwide in the September/October timeframe,” Mercer said. “The 
receiver’s performance thus far has been exceptional and we’re looking 
forward to the launch.”

Moffett also cited plans by News Corp.’s BSkyB to provide free broadband 
service to customers in Great Britain. News Corp. owns 38% of DirecTV, 
which lacks a broadband offering. A Federal Communications Commission 
auction for advanced-wireless-services spectrum begins in several weeks, 
and DirecTV and EchoStar, under the entity Wireless DBS LLC, are on the 
list of potential bidders, Moffett noted.

“News Corp.’s willingness to slash cash flows at BSkyB would appear to 
raise the risk of an unwelcome surprise in capital spending related to 
plans for a terrestrial broadband network at DirecTV, as well,” Moffett 
wrote. “Even if the business were to be built off-balance sheet, 
subscriber-acquisition costs associated with the broadband venture could 
directly and significantly impact DirecTV’s cash flows.”


================================
George Antunes, Political Science Dept
University of Houston; Houston, TX 77204
Voice: 713-743-3923  Fax: 713-743-3927
antunes at uh dot edu



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