August 23, 2007
HBOs Rivals Say It Has Stumbled, Though Catching Up Is Tough
By BILL CARTER
NY Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/23/arts/23hbo.html?pagewanted=print
Has HBO, the pay-television channel stocked with so many outstanding shows
that it declared itself in a category all its own as in Its not TV,
its HBO finally tumbled from its pedestal of prestige?
While the channel rejects that notion as both inaccurate and unfair, some
of its long-suffering competitors are only too eager to advance that
message. As evidence they point to the final exit from center stage of
HBOs greatest performer, The Sopranos, and the subsequent quick demise
of the show that inherited its spot on the schedule, the quirky surfer tale
John From Cincinnati.
John Landgraf, president of the FX network, which has introduced a series
of highly regarded dramas including Nip/Tuck, Rescue Me and this
seasons Damages, said of HBO, I wouldnt call them vulnerable. What
they were was unassailable. And they arent that anymore.
Showtime, the next biggest pay-cable channel, has had some of its
executives go so far as to use a new title for their biggest rival:
HB-Over. Matthew C. Blank, the chairman of Showtime, said, Ive heard
that term used for HBO both outside and inside our network.
Dismissing that remark as a cheap shot from jealous competitors, HBO
executives labeled the suggestion that their channel might have anything
serious to worry about as a misrepresentation of how well its programs
beyond The Sopranos have performed this year and a misreading of what its
business is about.
Michael Lombardo, the president of the HBO Programming Group, said Were
disappointed that John got a poor critical response and didnt resonate
with audiences, but I would not for a second trade our slate in 2007 with
any other network. He added that HBO took a risk with David Milch, the
creator of John From Cincinnati, because thats what we do. HBO has
made a new long-term deal with Mr. Milch and expects a new show from him soon.
As for the rest of its lineup, Richard Plepler a co-president of HBO,
offered a long list of accomplishments, topped by the channels continued
dominance of the Emmy nominations. The channel has also seen its subscriber
numbers increase this year, according to a survey by Kagan Associates.
Mr. Plepler pointed to positive recognition for HBOs movies, like
Longford, as well as for its documentaries, like When the Levees Broke,
which recently won a Peabody Award. And he cited the continued success of
the comedy Entourage, the drama Big Love and the new comedy Flight of
the Conchords, which was renewed for a second season.
In terms of raw numbers Conchords, with only about a million viewers on
average for its initial run on Sunday nights, is not in the same league as
previous HBO hits like Entourage, which has drawn as many as 3.8 million
viewers. But increasingly HBO is measuring its success both by how many
viewers a show accumulates over multiple plays and especially by how well
it drives the on-demand business, where viewers can order specific episodes
of shows.
HBO says that its on-demand business is not dominated by its hit shows but
by the niche interests of its audience for choices from theatrical movies
to sports programs. According to the channel, Flight of the Conchords has
been a strong on-demand entry with men between the ages of 18 and 34.
Robert Greenblatt, the president for entertainment at Showtime,
acknowledged that the HB-Over term was a zeitgeist comment, and that
it was never going to be over for HBO. But he argued, This sort of thing
is inevitable when you get to where they got to, where youre saying, Its
not TV, its HBO, and that youre superior to everyone else, and then you
hit a fallow period.
Mr. Blank meanwhile boasted about Showtimes lineup, led by shows like The
Tudors and Dexter that he called hits. But comparisons in ratings terms
or financial terms always favor HBO by wide margins. In audience terms HBO
and Showtime are still in separate leagues. Shows on Showtime, which almost
always fall well below a million viewers for their first runs, have far
fewer viewers than even John From Cincinnati and nowhere near what HBO
brings in for Entourage. Showtime, with 14 million subscribers, has only
about half the reach of HBO.
This week Showtime purchased full-page newspaper ads to trumpet some
critical raves that a pair of its shows, Weeds and Californication,
have received. The move emulated HBOs aggressive marketing strategy with
its own acclaimed shows, and at the same time represented a shot across the
bow of its rival.
Still, other cable channels are pointing to successes with their own
high-profile shows, dramas like The Closer on TNT and Mad Men on AMC,
and saying that HBO no longer has an automatic edge with viewers as the
network of high-quality programming. Mad Men seems an especially HBO-like
series and was offered first to the channel. (Showtime also passed on it.)
Matt Weiner, that shows creator and a longtime writer on The Sopranos,
said he had sent the pilot script to HBO and heard nothing back for a long
time. He concluded that HBO might not be interested in another period
piece. Some HBO executives now quietly concede Mad Men might have been a
good choice for them.
Some of that has to do with the shifting sensibilities of the executives in
charge. HBOs series success was forged under the leadership of Chris
Albrecht, who was forced out this year after a domestic violence charge.
Mr. Plepler and Mr. Lombardo now head the creative team. But Mr. Lombardo
said the offerings in the next year should answer all questions about the
strength of the channel.
HBO has another season of its widely praised comedy Curb Your Enthusiasm
about to start, as well as a much-talked-about drama series about sex
therapy called Tell Me You Love Me. Longer term is a lavish John Adams
miniseries, and a new drama about vampires from Alan Ball, the creator of
Six Feet Under. Among the ideas in development is an Atlantic City casino
drama from Martin Scorsese.
But HBO made what some considered a puzzling decision by inserting John
From Cincinnati, a show many critics labeled all but unfathomable, in the
channels center-ring time period, 9 p.m. Sunday nights. At the same time
HBO relegated the second season of its most promising new drama, Big
Love, to Monday nights.
Though Mr. Plepler said the move was not a mistake because Big Love has
accumulated just as big an audience this season as it did last season, HBO
seemingly acknowledged that Monday might not have been the best place for
Big Love when it shifted the show back to Sunday for its last two
episodes of this season. Last Sunday Big Love doubled the audience that
John From Cincinnati had been attracting.
Over time you start to make stumbles like that, Mr. Landgraf of FX said.
He did not argue that HBO had fallen apart, simply that it had fallen back
to the pack. HBO was really the only game in town, he said. It was the
only place to go if you were a producer or writer or actor who didnt want
to play that 22-episode, broadcast network game. But he said that FX and
Showtime were now proving to be just as hospitable to talented people.
Mr. Plepler said HBO has never been concerned about other networks having
hit shows. "There is plenty of room for other peoples shows to do well,
Mr. Plepler said. Its not a zero sum game. If we do what we do well,
well continue to be the most vibrant business in our category."
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George Antunes Voice (713) 743-3923
Associate Professor Fax (713) 743-3927
Political Science Internet: antunes at uh dot edu
University of Houston
Houston, TX 77204-3011
