$9 billion in holiday 'e-tail' sales anticipated By MARY DEIBEL (November 9, 1999 12:06 a.m. EST http://www.nandotimes.com) - With Internet sales projected to double to $9 billion this year, online retailers have already decked the virtual halls for the 1999 holiday season. E-tail sales will be only a tiny fraction of the $700 billion that retail analysts expect for the upcoming holidays - up 5 percent overall from the same period a year ago. A new Gallup Organization survey of 1,000 adults for the International Mass Retail Association finds that 12 percent of the nation's shoppers plan to buy by Internet during the 1999 holiday season, with men between 21 and 34 years old the likeliest to do so. Accounting-consulting firm Deloitte & Touche's 1999 holiday mood survey for the National Retail Federation finds that only 2 percent of Christmas shoppers plan to buy most of their presents online, but those who do will spend generously, budgeting $1,067 for gift-giving, including $219 for online purchases. The average American will spend $849 on all holiday gifts, however, compared to $814 last year, the mood poll concludes from asking 1,087 adults. Blaine Mathieu, a senior analyst for consultant Dataquest in San Jose, Calif., thinks that Christmas 1999 online will be the first holiday in which mainstream shoppers even try to browse for goods by computer, let alone buy. However, Mathieu says the experience could shape shopping habits for Christmases to come. The suddenness with which e-tailing caught on during the 1998 holidays left bricks-and-mortar retailers determined not to be left behind: Many spent the last 10 months retooling themselves as "clicks-and-mortar" vendors who have combined their knowledge of customers and existing distribution systems with state-of-the-art Web sites. "There's a place for the person who believes in e-commerce or likes to shop by home TV or mail-order catalog, but there's always going to be a store, and bricks and mortar will always have a place in a country where going to the mall is entertainment," says Joe Ettore, CEO of Ames Department Stores. He notes that Connecticut-based Ames operates discount stores in 19 states and the District of Columbia but has beefed up its Web site <http://www.ames.com/> for customer convenience in shopping and shipping. Want to order small electronics? In the market for toys for a favorite child? Veteran retailer-turned-consultant George Whalin of San Marcos, Calif., reports that consumer electronics dealers led by Circuit City now let you order that miniaturized sound system, cell phone or digital TV by home computer, then pick it up at the closest outlet. Ditto for Toys 'R' Us and other established toy retailers who let you order online, then return the merchandise to the closest store if it doesn't work right or work out when Aunt Hattie in Cincinnati cyber-orders the same Game Boy for Billy that Cousin Ralph sent from Sheboygan. At Target.com <http://www.target.com/> , the online version of Target Stores, the biggest division of Dayton-Hudson, for instance, shoppers can order online, then use easy in-store or mail returns if they have the original packaging slip or gift receipt for any kind of merchandise. Department stores including Macy's, Bloomingdale's and Nordstrom have honed their online presence, too, in time for the holidays, says Whalin, who predicts clicks-and-mortar retailers with experience will be the Web-wave of the future, not the online-only "pure players." Forrester Research in Cambridge, Mass, gives its latest PowerRanking to pure player Amazon.com <http://www.amazon.com/> , however, for capturing customer kudos in the toys and games and general merchandise categories as well as the books-music-video business in which it got its start before branching out this year. "Amazon's success isn't too hard to understand: Its site works so well that consumers keep coming back even though the prices aren't always the best," says David Weisman, group director for research at Forrester. He expects No. 1 U.S. retailer Wal-Mart to become a real Web contender, however, now that it's unveiled its new online site as the ongoing battle between traditional department stores and big-box discounters heats up in cyberspace. Carl Steidtmann, chief retail analyst for leading accounting-consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers, thinks it will be a "two-cheers Christmas. "One cheer will be for the expanded role of Internet sales; the other for Y2K," according to Steidtmann. Why Y2K when every retail, computer- and electronics-industry expert has soft-pedaled expectations of robust sales when consumers are likely be gun-shy of buying costly gizmos that might get caught by the computer glitch until after Jan. 1? Because, he says, "People worried about that same Y2K glitch are going to withdraw extra cash from the bank before the 2000 date change, and most of that money will get spent instead of making its way back into savings." http://www.nandotimes.com/technology/story/0,1643,500054788-500090088-500324 932-0,00.html <http://www.nandotimes.com/technology/story/0,1643,500054788-500090088-50032 4932-0,00.html> Mary Deibel is a reporter for Scripps Howard News Service.
