I had a look at: 
https://code.google.com/p/memcached/wiki/NewUserInternals#How_the_LRU_Decides_What_to_Evict
which sais memcache will "evict" one that isn't expired if it cannot
find an expired item. Am I correct to assume that it's evicting by LRU
logic? Is this an ordered stack eviction, or are there any random bits
in there?

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