However bad this gets, I don't think it will be like Chernobyl for two reasons:

These are contained plants, Chernobyl was an uncontained one.

Chernobyl was a graphite moderated reactor, so there was not only a completely out of control fission event, but a graphite fire that lasted several days to help spread stuff around. It was so bad video cameras worked very poorly and film was fogged inside cameras.....

No chance of a run-away fission reaction in Japan, the reactors were properly shut down when the quake hit. The danger here is overheated used fuel. Still bad enough, as the latest update on MSNBC said the fourth reactor at the plant is on fire and leaking radiation. The Japanese Prime Minister has ordered everyone within 12 miles of the plant to be evacuated, and I suspect it will get worse soon.

The containment on #2 was defective (big surprise).

Peter

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