> archer75--- wrote: > > *Auto repair shops will go away.* > > *A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual parts. An electrical > > motor has 20.
> > It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric > > motor. > > Your electric motor malfunction light goes on, so you drive up > > to what looks like a Jiffy-auto wash, and your car is towed > > through while you have a cup of coffee and out comes your car > > with a new electric motor!* Perfect. Now - how many problems do we have with cars that are NOT the engine. Those will still need a "normal" mechanic. If the engine were perfect, there is still a lot to repair... The rest of the article is just as mis-guided. > > *Gas stations will go away. Parking meters will be replaced by > > meters that dispense electricity. The job of a parking meter and the job of a fuel supply store are NOT the same. The one cannot functionally replace the other. > > *Most (the smart) major auto manufacturers have already > > designated money to start building new plants that only build > > electric cars.* Red herring. I think there are manufacturers that have plants that build only pickups. That does not mean pickups are destined to be the only vehicle on the road. > > *Coal industries will go away. If there is no coal, and a HUGE increase in electric demand, and no nuclear is being build - where will the electricity come from? > > Gasoline/oil companies will go away. Drilling for oil will > > stop. So, say goodbye to OPEC!* Domestic oil drilling is not OPEC anyway. And there is a LOT of industries that use coal and oil that is NOT the consumer car. I really don't think train and ship can effectively be re-fitted with plug-in electric. Maybe the author is expecting the return of tall ships. A 4 masted square rigged, steel hulled vessel can transport a lot of freight. I'm not sure it fits well with shipping containers, though. Or plug-in electric tractors? I'm not saying it won't happen, I'm saying it's not "just around the corner" as this author suggests. The author seems to be aware only of "cars" and "the road I drive on to work". The world is bigger than that. > > *Homes will produce and store more electrical energy during > > the day and then they use and will sell it back to the grid. Err. Right. Maybe back when there was a refrigerator and a couple light bulbs. > > The grid stores it and dispenses it to industries that are > > high electricity users. The _grid_ stores it????? Oops. > > *A baby of today will only see personal cars in museums.* At the top it's predicted our personal cars will get a new electric motor as a way to repair the steering, brakes, HVAC, and door locks. Now we find out there won't be personal cars. It seems to me many cities have tried to promote that and nearly all have failed miserably and are now living on tax welfare. > > *In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all > > photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business > > model disappeared, and they went bankrupt. Canon, builder of some of the better film cameras is now the builder of some of the better non-film cameras. So one company got stiff and couldn't change with the market. There are others that have. Time is change. Always has been - always will be. > > *Software has disrupted and will continue to disrupt most > > traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.* It's not software that is causing the disruption. It is _service_ that is facilitated by software. That's my observation, anyway. > > *UBER is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and > > are now the biggest taxi company in the world!* > > > > *Ask any taxi driver if they saw that coming.* See. Service. > > *Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, > > although they don't own any properties.* > > > > *Ask Hilton Hotels if they saw that coming.* Again, service. > > You won't want to own a car anymore as you will call a car > > with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive > > you to your destination. You will not need to park it you will > > only pay for the driven distance and you can be productive > > while driving. Doesn't this already exist with taxis? And yet taxis are still a _tiny_ minority of the cars on the road. > > *This will change our cities, because we will need 90-95% > > fewer cars. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.* Taxi service can do this already - and isn't. > > *Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean.* Electricity is already pretty clean. It's the generating of electricity that may not be so "clean". > > *WELCOME TO TOMORROW – it arrived a few years ago.* And it's not all that different than today. Sure it's changing. And in un-predicted ways. Always has. Always will. And so long as there are people, they will be irrational, illogical, independent, and as a whole, rather stupid. Always has been. Always will be. But all this technology is to support people - and so in all of this people are "king". _______________________________________ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
