Brian J Beesley wrote:
>
> From: "Brian J Beesley" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Date: Fri, 19 Mar 1999 09:36:19 GMT
> Subject: Re: Mersenne: Re: Mersenne Digest V1 #533
>
>
> [...snip...]
>
> The point is that random events *do* tend to occur in clusters. As
> an example, here in Northern Ireland we have already had more
> accidental deaths in house fires this year than we had in the whole
> of 1998, or in the whole of 1997. Politicians may panic, calling for
> compulsory fitting of smoke detectors, etc., but in fact there is no
> evidence that this is anything other than a run of "bad luck".
> Similarly I can find no statistically convincing evidence, even at the
> 5% level, that the "Noll islands" really do exist.
>
> (The rest of this reply is off-topic. Stop reading now if you object)
>
In that vein, I had just read the following a couple of days ago (while
researching a bit) under the tittle: "Following Benford's Law, or Looking Out for
No. 1"
> Probability predictions are often surprising. In the case of the coin-tossing
>experiment,
> Dr. Hill wrote in the current issue of the magazine American Scientist, a "quite
> involved calculation" revealed a surprising probability. It showed, he said, that the
> overwhelming odds are that at some point in a series of 200 tosses, either heads or
> tails will come up six or more times in a row. Most fakers don't know this and avoid
> guessing long runs of heads or tails, which they mistakenly believe to be improbable.
> At just a glance, Dr. Hill can see whether or not a student's 200 coin-toss results
> contain a run of six heads or tails; if they don't, the student is branded a fake.
>
http://www.256.com/~gray/info/benfords.html
Rodolfo
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