Remember that these figures are very rough. The number seen varies from person to person. They are often inaccurate. But they do give a very good idea of what to expect.
Jonathan M. Gore [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] The Wonderful Wolfgang Mozart & Albert Einstein ----- Original Message ----- From: "Ron Baalke" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "Meteorite Mailing List" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Thursday, October 10, 2002 11:34 AM Subject: [meteorite-list] 2002 Leonid Meteor Storm Forecast | | http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2002/09oct_leonidsforecast.htm | Meteor Storm Forecast | NASA Science News | October 9, 2002 | | NASA scientists have just released new predictions for the 2002 Leonid | meteor storm. | | A New Mexican desert. A graveyard in West Virginia. The | International Space Station (ISS). What do these places have in common? | Experts say they're good spots to watch the 2002 Leonid meteor storm, which | is expected this year on Nov. 19th. | | "We've calculated meteor rates for 58 cities around the world and for the | space station," says Bill Cooke of the Marshall Space Flight Center's Space | Environments Team. "People who live in North America or Europe or onboard | the ISS are going to see a lot of Leonids next month." | | Leonid meteor storms happen when Earth plows through clouds of dusty debris | shed by comet 55/P Tempel-Tuttle. Right now Earth is heading for two such | clouds. "We'll collide with both of them on Tuesday, Nov. 19th," says Cooke. | "The first cloud will cause a flurry of meteors over Europe at about 0400 | UT. We expect sky watchers in the countryside (away from bright city lights) | to see between 500 and 1000 Leonids per hour." | | Earth will plow into the second cloud about six hours later (1030 UT or 5:30 | a.m. EST) and cause an even bigger outburst over North America. "Observers | here in the United States could see as many as 2000 per hour," he predicts. | | Other parts of the world will be sprinkled with Leonids, too, but nothing | like Europe or North America. If the predictions are correct, observers in | Asia, Australia, South America and much of Africa will count no more than a | few dozen bright meteors in a one-hour span. | | 2002 Leonid Meteor Storm Predictions | Click on the name of the city nearest your hometown. [sample] | U.S. Cities Around the World | | Albuquerque, Minneapolis, Aberdeen, Mexico City, | NM MN Scotland Mexico | | Anchorage, AK New Orleans, Amsterdam, the Moscow, Russia | LA Netherlands | | Atlanta, GA New York, NY Bangkok, Nairobi, Kenya | Thailand | | Bangor, ME Omaha, NE Beijing, China New Delhi, | India | | Boise, ID Philadelphia, Cairo, Egypt Paris, France | PA | | Boston, MA Phoenix, AZ Dublin, Perth, | Ireland Australia | | Chicago, IL Portland, OR Edinburgh, Reykjavik, | Scotland Iceland | | Rio de | Cleveland, OH Raleigh, NC Frankfurt, Janeiro, | Germany | Brazil | | Denver, CO Sacramento, CA Hong Kong Rome, Italy | | Detroit, MI Salt Lake Istanbul, Santiago, | City, UT Turkey Chile | | Honolulu, HI Seattle, WA Jakarta, S�o Paulo, | Indonesia Brazil | | Houston, TX St. Louis, MO Jerusalem, Seoul, South | Israel Korea | | Las Vegas, NV Washington, Johannesburg, Stockholm, | D.C. South Africa Sweden | | Los Angeles, London, | CA Wichita, KS England Tokyo, Japan | | coming soon: | Miami, FL . Manila, the Canadian | Philippines | cities | | Above: Bill Cooke of the NASA/MSFC Space Environments Group prepared these | city-by-city forecasts of Leonid activity in 2002. The colored curves denote | predictions by three teams (Asher-McNaught, Jenniskens, Lyytinen-Van | Flandern) who successfully forecast the 2001 storm. Note that the rates | (vertical axis) correspond to 15-minute intervals; also, all times | (horizontal axis) are local--that is, the time in the city specified. [more] | | Although millions of people will experience either the European outburst or | the North American outburst, only three people will see both: the crew of | the International Space Station. | | "The ISS will be flying over Europe during the first outburst," explains Rob | Suggs, leader of the Space Environments Team. "Then it will pass over North | America during the second outburst. Perfect timing!" Astronauts looking out | the station's windows could spot more meteors than anyone else. | | Meteor watching from the space station isn't like meteor watching from the | ground. On Earth we look up to see shooting stars. On the ISS they look | down. That's because meteoroids glow when they disintegrate in Earth's | atmosphere at an altitude of about 80 km. The ISS orbits Earth about 300 km | higher than that, so from the point of view of an astronaut meteors appear | underfoot. (Astronaut Frank Culbertson described his experience watching the | 2001 Leonids from the ISS in Science@NASA's "Space Station Meteor Shower.") | | Observers on the ISS and on Earth will be equally bothered during this | year's shower by a glaring full Moon. "Moonlight will reduce the number of | Leonids seen by some factor between 2 and 5," says Cooke. "We took this into | account when we calculated our forecasts." | | Along the east coast of North America, the meteor outburst will happen just | before local dawn. "That's good," says Suggs, "because at that time of | night, the Moon will be low in the western sky. Try to find a dark observing | site where the Moon sets early behind tall buildings or surrounding hills." | A country graveyard, say, in one of the mountainous Appalachian states might | be an ideal spot, he laughs. | | In Europe and in western parts of North America, the Moon will be high in | the sky when the Leonids arrive. "That's not so good," he says. Moonlight | scattered from air molecules and aerosols (e.g., water droplets, dust and | pollution) makes the air glow and interferes with meteor watching. The glow | will be less in places where the air is dry and pollution-free. Suggs | recommends traveling to the desert, if possible, or to a mountain which | rises above the local aerosol layer. "A desert mountaintop would be the | perfect combination," he says. | | Indeed, that's where Suggs is going, to the Sacramento Mountains of southern | New Mexico. He's leading a team there to record the North American outburst | using image-intensified video cameras. "Our job," explains Suggs, "is to | improve meteoroid activity forecasts for spacecraft. Observing these showers | from Earth helps refine our models." Suggs will also have teams in Spain, | Alabama, the Canary Islands and Arizona, "so we'll be able to monitor both | peaks." | | "I'd rather watch the shower from the ISS," allows Suggs, but it could be | worse: New Mexico is ones of the best places on Earth to see the 2002 | Leonids, and "it beats a graveyard any day." | | ______________________________________________ | Meteorite-list mailing list | [EMAIL PROTECTED] | http://www.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list ______________________________________________ Meteorite-list mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
