Hi, EP, List,
a small change in the Sun's radiation
leads to a big change in temperature.
I lean toward SOME small input = big output
system as an explanation. It has a certain elegance.
A South African meteorologist has noted that sunspot
activity varies with the relation of our Sun to our
solar systems center of gravity...
Taking this from your followup email, EP:
Our analyses show that the changes in the receipt
of solar energy are appreciably greater than those
generally quoted in the climate change literature.
Calculating from the glacticentric coordinates of the
solar system barycenter or from heliocentric coordinates
should transform smoothly to the same distances between
any two bodies, just as the transform from geocentric
coordinates to heliocentric coordinates does.
What he's saying is that the distance from the Earth
to the Sun varies over a 21-year cycle and that this variation
has not been accounted for in the centuries of complex
celestial mechanics. Not likely, if that's what he means.
Later: The Googling this sent me on reveals LOTS of
material involving climate cycles and the barycentric motion
of the Sun, and a lot of it smells fringe-like. Some figures
were reasonably, if strangely, scientific (Fairbridge, Landscheidt)
and others were, well, just strange.
The whole field of sunspots, cycles, and climate seems
to attract a surprisingly large number of theorists from the
real to the surreal.
Frankly, my instincts say "Caution."
To find out more about "Will" Alexander, Google
this search term: "hydrometeorological data WJR Alexander"
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&safe=off&q=hydrometeorological+data+WJR+Alexander
He is a cantankerous contrarian, but when is that news?
In his previous publications, he makes no mention of the
physical cause of the cycles he observes and says that he
leaves that to others. Apparently, he's come up a physical
cause now. He is aggressively anti-Global Warming.
Before leaping into the whole question of Solar Variability,
take a look at what the heck you're getting into:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation
Now to return to meteorites, do we have a track of
sunspot activity in 44Ti?
Yes, we do.
But, not an independent, absolute measure. The
cosmic rays that generate the 44Ti only penetrate so far
into the body of the meteoroid, so the amounts of 44Ti
have to be "scaled" up to match a curve of the modulation
parameter (which = magnetic field which = sunspot number).
As long as they're scaled up consistently and match,
good. They do. But it's supporting evidence to a sunspot
number model, not an independent determination of solar
activity. Any systemic error would vanish in the "scaling."
Sterling K. Webb
-------------------------------------------------------------------
----- Original Message -----
From: "E.P. Grondine" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[email protected]>
Sent: Thursday, September 28, 2006 9:44 PM
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Meteorites Used To Study Solar Activity
ATLAST!!!
Hi Sterling -
My guess for the puzzle's answer:
Most likely, the change in solar radiation changes the
Earth's ozone level, which in traps more IR. Sort of
like the doped layer of a transistor - a small change
in the Sun's radiation leads to a big change in
temperature.
A South African meteorologist has noted that sunspot
activity varies with the relation of our Sun to our
solar systems center of gravity. This improves on Timo
Niroma observation that tied sunspots to Jupiter's
gravity.
Fr. Ricardo of Santa Clara noticed the correlation
between sunspot activity and weather back at the turn
of the century.
Now to return to meteorites, do we have a track of
sunspot activity in 44Ti?
good hunting,
Ed
--- "Sterling K. Webb" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
wrote:
Hi, Katsuhito, List,
Thanks for the accessible link!
It would seem that what he wishes to correlate
44Ti
with is the "heliospheric modulation parameter."
After
scurrying to Google, I discover that it is
apparently an
arbitrary coefficient that reflects the ability of
the Sun's
heliosphere to deflect, stop, slow and otherwise
prevent
cosmic rays from reaching the Earth's surface.
It is believed to relate directly to the
strength of the
Sun's magnetc field, which in turn relates directly
to
the sunspot number. Solar modulation changes
galactic
cosmic ray intensities at low energies by up to an
order
of magnitude between the solar minimum and the solar
maximum.
The modulation parameter is determined by
largely
empirical means (balloon flight measurements) and
"ignores a lot of physics which could be important,"
says one scientist, like the tilt of the magnetic
field.
But it does seem to work well.
The half life of 44Ti is only 86 years, so if
you tested
a meteorite that fell in 1146 AD, less than one
thousandth
of the 44Ti would be left. In a fall from 286 AD,
less than
one millionth. Still, it would be interesting if
they could
extend the study back in time.
Global warmists tend to discount the intense
warming
eposode between 900 AD and 1200 AD. They even cast
doubt on the "Little Ice Age" of 1400 to 1700 AD.
Anyone
know of a 450 year old or a 950 year old fall?
Usoskin is primarily interested in determining
which
sunspot model number fits reality and the GSN model
(whatever that is) clearly does. What I note with
interest
is the equally good fit of the sunspot number models
to the
neutron flux. The most usual end product of cosmic
rays
slashing into the atmosphere is neutrons.
Here we've been measuring the Sun's entire
energy
output bolometrically for a century or so, and it
obviously
doesn't change enough to account for warming or
cooling
on the scale that happens over the long term. But,
what if,
what if tiny modulations in the heliosphere have a
biggish
effect on how many neutrons get to punch down into
the
Earth's lower atmosphere and that result largely
determines
what the amount of cloud cover for the planet will
be?
1,674,900,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
neutrons
weigh in at one gram, so perhaps a mass only equal
to
that of a feather (or a small rock), properly
applied over
time, has the power to turn the planet's thermostat
up or
down 5 or 10 degrees! It would, by any reckoning, be
a
very tiny finger on that thermostat.
It would be so clever of the Universe to do
that.
One of the interesting features of a neutron
moderated
climate model would be the asymmetry of its function
in
cold vs. warm regimes. In an Ice Age, evaporation is
greatly
reduced and much of the water is tied up in ice; it
is a very
dry time. Pelt the Earth with neutrons all you want,
but it's
hard to form many new clouds in such arid
conditions, so
the Ice Age can cool the planet unopposed.
In a Greenhouse Age, however, the Earth would
become
very much more sensitive to cooling moderated by
neutron
flux induced cloud cover. With high evaporation
rates, high
sea levels, and high humidity, neutrons would be in
control
of the planet's albedo, and "cap" the possible
increase in
temperature.
The GCM's (Global Climate Models), which have
clouds
driven only by heat and evaporation, have this
tendency to
diverge into runaway greenhouse heating (like
Venus), but
the reality is that for many long Greenhouse Ages,
the Earth's
mean temperature always stabilizes around 22 degrees
C.
and stays there for tens of millions of years
(except for one
short nasty hot spell at the end of the Permian).
For at least
the last half billion years, that's the way it's
been: no runaway
greenhouses.
Sterling K. Webb
-----------------------------------------------------
----- Original Message -----
From: "K. Ohtsuka" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "Meteorite Mailing List"
<[email protected]>
Sent: Thursday, September 28, 2006 6:54 AM
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Meteorites Used To
Study Solar Activity
ATLAST!!!
> Hello list members,
>
> see the following link,
>
>
http://www.aanda.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=181&Itemid=42&lang=en
>
> where you can download the PDF file of the A&A
letter.
>
> Katsuhito O.
> Tokyo, JAPAN
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Rob McCafferty" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> To: <[email protected]>
> Sent: Thursday, September 28, 2006 7:00 AM
> Subject: [meteorite-list] Meteorites Used To Study
Solar Activity AT
> LAST!!!
>
>
>> Hi all
>>
>> This phenomena of cosmic ray alteration of
isotope
>> concentration has been known to me for a long
while.
>>
>> As solar activity increases, it deflects the
cosmic
>> rays which reduces the effect of cosmic rays.
>>
>> On earth, one of it's best effects is altering
the
>> amount of Carbon 14 (C14) prodced during periods
of
>> high solar activity. C14 has a known half-life of
>> approx 5800 years and is created constantly so
all
>> things once living have a known amount of it.
Once
>> they die, this proportion decreases.
>>
>> Less well known is that year on year, the
proportion
>> of C12/C14 changes according to solar activity.
>> Correction factors have to be made in carbon
dating.
>>
>> Individual tree rings can be measured for actual
vs
>> predicted C12/C14 ratios and a picture of solar
>> activity can be build up.
>>
>> This method shows several things
>>
>> Tree rings from 1640 to 1710 show a big increase
in
>> C14 vs predicted signifying a low solar activity.
This
>> roughly corresponds to a period of low
temperature.
>> The Thames in London used to freeze each winter
and
>> was so thick fairs could be held on the ice.
>>
>> It suggests that in Roman times, temperatures
were
>> even warmer than today. Grapes can only be grown
in
>> south east England today. Back then they could be
>> grown North of York.
>>
>> It also suggests a general increase in solar
activity
>> over the last few hundred years, since the
Maunder
>> minimum, in fact. We're on a rise now,
apparently.
>>
>> If meteorites are also showing this trend, some
>> credence must be give to the "The Human Race is a
>> bunch of arrogant idiots who think they are more
>> influential in the Grand Scheme of Things than
they
>> really are" school of thought which I aspire to
>> ascribe.
>>
>> Equally, I suggest that this blip in the epochs
of
>> time should be a timely reminder not to mess with
>> things too much as we really have no idea how
much
>> influence we really have.
>>
>> Just my thoughts for the subject.
>>
>> (DISCLAIMER: this post was not sponsored by
>> Shell/BP/XXon/FINA/Texaco or any other petrolium
>> industry, etc. The author cannot discount the
>> possibility that the original meteorite study may
have
>> been. He would like to distance himself from any
>> suggestions to that effect....
>>
>> I think that puts me in the clear)
>>
>> Anon (just in case)
>>
>>
>>
>> --- "Matson, Robert" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
wrote:
>>
>> > Hi All,
>> >
>> > Who'da thunk that global warming could become
an
>> > on-topic
>> > subject for the meteorite list?! --Rob
>> >
>> > -----Original Message-----
>> > From:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>> >
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>> > On Behalf Of Ron
>> > Baalke
>> > Sent: Tuesday, September 26, 2006 2:15 PM
>> > To: Meteorite Mailing List
>> > Subject: [meteorite-list] Meteorites Used To
Study
>> > Solar Activity
>> >
>> >
>>
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/view.php?StoryID=20060926-015940-3936r
>> >
>> > Meteorites used to study solar activity
>> > UPI
>> > September 26, 2006
>> >
>> > OULU, Finland (UPI) -- A Finnish-led
international
>> > team has used
>> > meteorites to investigate the sun's solar
activity
>> > of past centuries.
>> >
>> > Ilya Usoskin at Finland's Sodankyla Geophysical
>> > Observatory and
>> > colleagues compared the amount of Titanium 44
in 19
>> > meteorites that have
>> > fallen to the Earth the past 240 years. They
said
>> > their findings confirm
>> > that solar activity increased strongly during
the
>> > 20th century. They
>> > also find the sun has been particularly active
>> > during the past few
>> > decades.
>> >
>> > The scientists say studying the sun's activity
is
>> > one of the oldest
>> > astrophysical projects, as astronomers began
>> > recording the number of
>> > sunspots to trace the sun's magnetic activity
400
>> > years ago.
>> >
>> > The team examined a set of 19 meteorites whose
dates
>> > of fall are
>> > precisely known, measuring the amount of
radioactive
>> > isotope Titanium 44
>> > in each meteorite. Titanium 44 is produced by
the
>> > cosmic rays in the
>> > meteorites while they are outside the Earth's
>> > atmosphere. After the
>> > meteorite has fallen, it stops producing the
>> > isotope.
>> >
>> > By measuring the Titanium 44 in the meteorites,
the
>> > scientists
>> > determined the level of solar activity at the
time
>> > the meteorite fell.
>> >
>> > The study appears in the journal Astronomy &
>> > Astrophysics Letters.
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