Big foot in mouth... Well, I only managed to prove my inability to
understand orbital calculations. It is of course easier to measure speed
and position orthogonally to the plane of the planet system.
Thanks for giving the necessary explanation to kick my brain in the
right orbit.
:-)
Regards, Göran
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Hi Göran:
It is all in the timing. If I remember correctly, when orbits are
calculated, the greatest uncertainty is in the time of perihelion passage
(where it is in its orbit). So, while they know the inclination of the
orbit (where it will be when it crosses the orbit of Mars), the greatest
question is will Mars still be there (or not there yet). That is the
greatest uncertainty.
With a better orbit (and better timing), the untertainty goes down and so
the "target ellipse" gets smaller. When it is big, there is a greater
likelihood that Mars will be in it. When the ellipse gets smaller, the
likelihood is that Mars will not be in it.
Larry
On Fri, December 21, 2007 1:13 am, Göran Axelsson wrote:
"Scientists say the object currently has a 1-in-75 chance of colliding
with the planet, but that probability is expected to go down over the next
month as more observations are made."
Let me guess... it has a 74 in 75 probability to go down and 1 in 75
chance to go up?
I'm always amused over this formulation. It always appears like a
reassuring message, "Don't worry, it will go away."
"If the asteroid does smash into Mars, it'll likely aim near the
equator, ..." What? They don't know if it will hit, but if it hit Mars it
will do it near the equator. Is this a statistical centre of where it will
hit because the equator lies halfway between the poles.
Okay, maybe the error in the predicted orbit is really small and just
overlaps Mars at one side of the planet....
Anyhow, a really interesting scenario and I hope I will be able to see a
major impact on Mars with my own eyes through the big telescope in the
local observatory.
/Göran
tracy latimer wrote:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22350742/
Watch the skies! We may be getting (okay a LONG time down the road)
more Martian meteorites...:)
Tracy Latimer
_________________________________________________________________
The best games are on Xbox 360. Click here for a special offer on an
Xbox 360 Console.
http://www.xbox.com/en-US/hardware/wheretobuy/
______________________________________________
http://www.meteoritecentral.com
Meteorite-list mailing list
[email protected]
http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
______________________________________________
http://www.meteoritecentral.com
Meteorite-list mailing list
[email protected]
http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
______________________________________________
http://www.meteoritecentral.com
Meteorite-list mailing list
[email protected]
http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
