Hello Jeff, All,
The comparison to Carancas was provided as a contrast simply because
it is such an unusual and different meteorite, and yet the asking
price for these new Canadian stones is roughly what Carancas is going
for right now. It's a large, ordinary, equilibrated chondrite fall,
the likes of which we see almost once a year with some regularity
(e.g. Thuathe, Amgala, Park Forest, Kilabo, Bensour, Chergach,
Bassikounou, Berduc, etc.).
And the asking price is more than Park Forest, which was a spectacular
urban fall, and of which less material was found. The asking price
for Park Forest currently runs between $20-30/g, from what I can find.
A dealer or two have it listed at $40/g, but...not average. The
price at the time was...$20-30/g. It started high, and, because of
great demand for the urban fall, it stayed high.
All of the other falls are ~$1.20/g (see the beautifully fresh 1.7kg
Chergach that just passed on ebay, from ET, as well as a brace of
stones I personally bought in the 120g range from an American dealer)
to the asking price of $5-10/g for pieces of the other falls (see ebay
- meteoritica, Hupe - both have Chergach currently listed on ebay, and
there's quite a bit of Bensour around if you want to compare that),
not that they sell quickly at those prices. After all, if you look at
what's listed, well, those are the pieces that have yet to sell.
The only comparable meteorite I can find is the Argentinean fall of
Berduc, which, though I can't name any names (it was a while ago), was
listed between $10 and $30/g. Restricted export, few suppliers, fresh
fall, etc.
The initial determining of the asking price of a fall is essentially
arbitrary The hunters could set it at $5/g or $10/g if they only
wanted to cover personal costs (and make a little on the side). Or
they could try to set it at $1000/g to make a profit. The only thing
keeping them from charging that much is the knowledge that, at some
point, they wouldn't turn a profit because their asking price would be
too high for anyone to buy.
A dealer looking to turn as high a profit as possible would ask as
high a price as he could, while still selling all of his material.
Why wouldn't they? Do you really feel indignant enough at the
dealers' asking five or ten times the price for comparable falls to
not buy a stone from them? Personally, I do, and I won't. I think
they're taking advantage of us folks who love them, but who have jobs
and obligations - people who love them enough that we would go on such
trips that we could, but who can't because of our responsibilities.
But let's have some fun.
Lets assume these fellows come back with a mere 500g. Just over a
pound of space, between the two of them.
And let's assume a high trip/cost estimate:
Given that next-day flights to Edmonton from where I live were ~$130,
and let's say they both stay there for a week at $80/night + food, a
car....it works out to about a thousand dollars for the trip, each.
$2,000 combined cost.
If that's right, they would break even at $4/g. Each $1/g over $4/g
would give them $500.
If they're asking $50/g, they would make...$46x500.
That's a profit of $23,000.
And if my estimate was off and they each flew first-class, rented
Hummers, and spent $50/day on food, they'll only make $20,000 off of
500g.
...Do you think they got more than a pound of material from the trip?
I would assume so.
A kilogram between the two of them would give them almost $50,000.
Not bad for a quick flight up to Edmonton and a week's fun.
I'll wait for the thaw. Anyone else who has spring break free (dates
available), drop me a line and I'll see what kind of a trip we can
arrange. What I can promise is that if I do find enough on that trip
to warrant selling some, I'll have it at a reasonable price.
Regards,
Jason
On Sat, Dec 6, 2008 at 11:18 PM, Jeff Kuyken
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Steve and Mike both touched on an interesting point here that I was
pondering myself the last couple of days. The material found now
will be
different to the material found weeks, months and years down the
track. I
didn't realise how much a fall can vary until "Amgala" (Oum
Dreyga). I
purchased a 15g individual from Mike Farmer from his very first
batch of
about 1kg. I believe these were about the first stones picked up. I
paid
about $10/g and it was worth every cent. I have several other Oum
Dreyga
specimens from numerous sources and NONE come even close to the
first 15g
which looks like soot would rub off on your hands. In fact no other
recent
fall I have appears as fresh as this stone. Two other recent falls
that come
immediately to mind with vast differences in weathering are Park
Forest and
Moss.
So maybe $50/g is high but maybe it's also not so bad considering
what the
other stones 'might' be like down the track. You can also speculate
all you
like but there are so many factors which will dictate the price of
a fall.
And I don't think you can really compare one with another.
Comparing this
Canadian fall with Carancas is probably not a good measure at all.
They are
two totally different falls with two totally different stories.
The most important thing to remember about the 'value' of a
meteorite (or
anything for that matter) is that it is only worth what someone is
willing
to pay.
Cheers,
Jeff
----- Original Message ----- From: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; <meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com
>
Sent: Saturday, December 06, 2008 5:34 AM
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Ad New Canadian Meteorite for sale
Greg and All,
I tend to agree that the price MIGHT drop to $10/g, especially if
there
is a
high degree of rusting on the specimens found later next year.
However, there is a chance the Canadians might offer to buy all
or most
of
the ones already found.
If the land owners can get a tax credit on $50/g to donate them,
everyone
up
there might be happy to donate them, and at a 50% tax rate, that
is the
same
as getting $25/g cash in hand to the overtaxed Canadians.
It sounds like most of the land owners are very wealthy, so money
may not
mean anything to them. They might donate them all and not even
care
about a
tax break or cash values at all.
If only a few kilos make it to the market place, then we could
see the
value
be higher than $10/g.
If we seen hundreds of rusty kilos coming onto the market, then
we could
see
the prices end up way below $10/g.
In any case, we probably will have to wait for the 6 months to
pass to
see
what is not purchased by the Canadian Government.
One thing is sure, if ALL the masses were put on a restricted
Canadian
only
collector market, a few hundred kilos would probably sell for
$0.10 a
gram or
even less.
A smart thing might be to buy one specimen from Sonny and
McCartney NOW
at
$50/g and then buy more later at $10/g and if the price goes down to
under
$1/g then buy so much more that you will have cost averaged your
first
purchase
at $50/g down to a reasonable level.
Of course, if you are one of those people that get a rush at
owning the
newest most famous meteorite that everyone is talking about
around the
water
cooler, then how can you put a value on that???
:-)
And also, realize that if you do buy a meteorite from Sonny and
McCartney
now, you are investing into field recovery. I seriously doubt
they will
make a
profit on this trip even if they sold what little they found at
$100/g,
but
if they can come close to breaking even, maybe next time they
will again
be
able to afford to get on the scene early and find more.
And at the very least, we should congratulate them on getting to
the
scene
and making an effort.
Good job guys, and congratulations!
Steve Arnold #1
www.SteveArnoldMeteorites.com
**************Make your life easier with all your friends, email,
and
favorite sites in one place. Try it now.
(http://www.aol.com/?optin=new-dp&icid=aolcom40vanity&ncid=emlcntaolcom00000010
)
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