Here is a great video submitted to the List in March by Bill Hall that may answer your question...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zvCUmeoHpw

Best regards,
Greg

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----- Original Message ----- From: "Meteorites USA" <e...@meteoritesusa.com>
To: <meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com>
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2009 5:11 PM
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] "Supergiant" Asteroid Impact


Increased discovery of NEOs (NEA) over time...

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/stats/

This poses yet another not so obvious question. Can Moore's law (or something similar) predict the rate of discovery based on the technological advancement of the human species as a whole? Don't forget to calculate population growth as well...

World & USA Population clock: http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html

We are advancing as a species faster than ever before in the history of human kind. 100 years ago it took months to travel across the world, and we did not have TV, cell phones,and of course the internet. Today we can travel to any place on the planet in less than 12 hours and access information with the click of a mouse. We can talk to another human on the opposite side of the world with little effort and see what's happening LIVE in every continent via satellite communication.

As for exploration, before the next decade is out we might even put a human being on Mars, and who knows what other scientific discoveries will be made after that. We're living in a very exciting time. We're in the midst of a superfast evolutionary change as a species.

Where are we going next?

Maybe nowhere if an asteroid slams into us...





Meteorites USA wrote:

Article about a supergiant asteroid shutting down Mars's magnetic field.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/05/090511-mars-asteroid.html

This raises the question that seems to be getting bigger and bigger. What would such an impact do to Earth? Would we be wiped out by the impact, severe weather, nuclear winter, earthquakes, tsunamis or by the atmosphere withering away by the solar winds? Or would humans be able to survive underground in manufactured ecosystems capable of supporting life?

What if a supergiant asteroid slammed our planet tomorrow? Who would be sequestered away deep in the safe rooms underground?

The question is not whether we are prepared -as we are not- the question is simply when will we find a solution to this obvious hazard. We're finding more asteroids all the time. It's becoming more mainstream, and public awareness is growing. Eventually we will find one that is on a collision course with Earth.

When taking into account the increased awareness, advances in technology, and population increasing over time, I would predict a major discovery in less than 5 years. Now, this is not to say that an asteroid will hit in 5 years, but at the rate of the increase of awareness the likelihood that an amateur astronomer or asteroid hunter will find something increases exponentially over time. Not to mention NASA's NEO Project and other governmental and educational asteroid hunting programs.

We've all heard the phrase "It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when." when describing the likelihood of an asteroid impacting Earth. Well I would say you have to believe that this increase in knowledge and discovery is directly related to the increase in technological advancement coupled with a population increase. As we are able to see more we will learn more faster.



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