From: Sterling K. Webb <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Fireballs Meteors & Meteorites
To: "Meteorites USA" <[email protected]>,
[email protected]
Date: Tuesday, May 26, 2009, 3:52 PM
Hi,
These are random events. And random may be
statistically defined as "one every 2.37 days" (or
whatever), but they don't happen on a 2.37-day
schedule.
The first thing you notice when you plot "random"
events is that they seem to "cluster." I say "seem"
because humans are very sensitively primed to "see"
patterns and potential trends in the events of the
world.
Frequencies go up; frequencies go down; it's random.
That's what random means. Every event is completely
unpredictable. Yet, given a large number of events
and a long enough period of time, the "completely
unpredictable" is "completely predictable," in the
miracle of statistical mechanics. Watch a large group
of randomly decaying uranium atoms draw a near-
perfect mathematical curve of declining activity.
The Universe likes to have it both ways. In contrast
to what Einstein thought, God does roll the dice but,
at the same time, the game is totally rigged.
Or is it?
The only valid rule about seeing fireballs and meteors
is this: they may fall or they may not fall, but if you're
not looking, you won't see them.
Sterling K. Webb
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
----- Original Message ----- From: "Meteorites USA" <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2009 2:13 PM
Subject: [meteorite-list] Fireballs Meteors &
Meteorites
The sky has been really quiet lately. Believe me, I'm
watching...
I've been rather disappointed that there has been no
big meteors reported lately. So I was slightly curious when
I ran across this little blurb hoping it was something. Then
after reading the report... Well, let's just say that not
all fireballs are meteors.
http://www.local12.com/news/local/story/Mysterious-Lights-Near-Lebanon-Explained/04cbRHZAF0Cf_DQsy8_iXw.cspx
Skydiving anyone...?
On a side note, I'd like to ask some more questions.
We've all witnessed and are very aware of the increased
number of "witnessed" meteor events over this past year.
Particularly the last 6 months or so. We're also very aware
of all the new falls, especially those two newest meteorite
falls right here in the United States and Canada. Not to
mention the probable fall north of Merced, the Flagstaff
fireball, Augusta, and another near Ontario Canada.
I've asked this question before and received mixed
replies with no definitive answers. My question still
stands.
Can anyone seriously say definitively that all the
recent meteor fireballs and meteorite dropping fireball
activity is NORMAL and simply attributed to increased
awareness?
The increased awareness supposedly explains the
increased number of fireball sightings. This seems likely
but it is NOT the case. Look at the Meteorite Men TV show as
a perfect example of mainstream awareness. A national
primetime program that was broadcast to millions of homes
across this nation via the Science Channel. This would lead
someone to believe logically that perhaps there would be an
increased awareness one could attribute directly to this
main stream broadcast. There was... But this increased
awareness is not of meteors, but of meteorites.
There has actually been decrease in reports of large
meteor fireballs over the last month. There is a big
increase in news related directly to meteorites, but NOT
meteors or fireballs!
Even with more media attention on "meteorites" over
the last month, I suspect that the reason there has been
decreased fireball sightings, is simply because there have
been less fireballs to see. They' are just not falling at
the rate they were a month or two ago.
Can someone explain why? Am I missing something?
-- Regards,
Eric Wichman
Meteorites USA
http://www.meteoritesusa.com
904-236-5394
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