Hi, Shawn, Eric, and all the posters,
Living beings evolve to become increasingly sensitive
to meaningful patterns. Failure to recognize a pattern
of danger can have a high, even fatal, penalty, whereas
seeing danger where there is none has only a slight
penalty in waste energy and stress.
Humans are better at seeing patterns in the world
around them than any other organism on the planet.
Frequently, we are too good at it, as when we discover
the Face of God in the burnt wrinkles of a tortilla, or
accept too much circumstantial evidence of the unlikely.
Whether one thinks the Wethersfield falls are truly
coincidental or not, you notice that the question was
thought to be worth answering; we examined them
petrologically to find out.
And, just to make matters worse, in addition to the two
Wethersfield L6's in 1971 and 1982, there's the Stratford,
CT L6 in 1974, only 48 miles away from Wethersfield...
In addition to 2 meteorites in a two-mile circle in 11 years,
it's 3 meteorites in a 50-mile circle in 11 years.
Martin compares the coincidence of the 11-year falls
of two meteorites within 1.4 miles of each other to the
fall of rain drops on the same wet spot. What is the
difference between meteorite fall and raindrop fall?
Their frequency.
Many more raindrops fall than do meteorites, so many
more raindrops that the fact that two raindrops fall on
the same spot is unremarkable, but the fall of two
meteorites near each other in short order is not.
The true significance of rare events like the two falls
in Wethersfield is as a potential indicator of the overall
fall rate of meteorites. There is even a kind of mathematical
analysis that deals with the frequencies of rare events:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution
Unfortunately, it can't be applied with only one sample
event like Wethersfield "coincidence." This is because we
don't know if the Wethersfield's were a 1-in-a-hundred
coincidence or a 1-in-a-million coincidence, or as the
man in the street says, "What are the odds?"
Is it a pattern, or an accident?
Personally, since I don't like to believe in highly unlikely
events, I see Wethersfield as an indicator of a higher fall
rate, but those who really don't like high fall rates will see
Wethersfield as a rarer coincidence than I do because they're
more comfortable with rare events than increased "normal"
levels of risk.
It all boils down to your personal taste in universes...
Sterling K. Webb
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----- Original Message -----
From: "Shawn Alan" <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
Cc: <[email protected]>
Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2010 5:26 PM
Subject: [meteorite-list] Related Meteorite Falls 11 years apart?
BothHammers! Both L6 Olivine-hypersthene ANSWER e
Hi Eric and Listers,
Eric you had said...
"Two small rocks of the same exact type floated around the solar
system for millions/billions of years, and crash land within 1.4 miles
of each other only 11 years apart and they are not related?
So basically it's a coincidence? ;)"
Now when you say coincidence your inferring its not a coincidence and
the two falls happened for some other reason, like the act of god, or
the solar system is trying to tell us something?
Meteorites fall alot, its been happening over 4 billion years.
Chondrites are the most common meteorite, so it would make since that
the probability of two meteorites of the same type and class could
happen. But again with probability anything can happen. Tomorrow another
meteorite could hit in Wethersfield again and could be a Chondrite.
Whats in question is the odds of it happening again. A few months ago
Lorton had a visitor and it was a Chondrite and it also had hit a
building and landed on the floor in a doctors office.
Now for the Wethersfield 1971 and 1982 falls were independent of each
other which would make them 2 separate falls canceling out the pairing
hypotheses. As for the two meteorites coming from the same parent body,
I would have to say no because the petrographic is different between the
two. In addition, the cosmic ray exposure age is 3MY for the 1971 fall
and 50 MY from the 1982 fall, inferring that the two falls came from
different parent bodies. Here is a link to a pdf that explains this in
better detail.
http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-iarticle_query?1987Metic..22..358C&data_type=PDF_HIGH&whole_paper=YES&type=PRINTER&filetype=.pdf
Now I have a question for everyone, I wonder which fall is worth more
money. If it wasn't for the second fall, this would have never happened.
But again if it wasn't for the first it wouldnt have happen either. But
what I can say is that the first fall in 1971 is 7 times smaller then
the fall in 1982.
Shawn Alan
[meteorite-list] Related Meteorite Falls 11 years apart? Both Hammers!
Both L6 Olivine-hypersthene
Meteorites USA eric at meteoritesusa.com
Sun Mar 7 17:10:36 EST 2010
Previous message: [meteorite-list] Related Meteorite Falls 11 years
apart? Both Hammers! Both L6 Olivine-hypersthene
Next message: [meteorite-list] Record Nevada Chondrite Find
Messages sorted by: [ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi Michael,
Thanks for the opinion... Could you share some of the research? Papers,
articles, maps, photos, classifications etc...
Though I appreciate and respect it, I just have a hard time grasping or
believing a coincidence in this circumstance. Statistically it seems
very possible they are related and from the same parent body. In fact
the probability of them NOT being related seems remote as it doesn't
make sense not to consider the likelihood of a pairing relationship. Or
am I just trying to talk myself into it? ;)
Has anyone looked at Google Earth and zoomed out to see how small a spot
that actually is? That's like shooting a speeding bullet our of the air
with another. The Earth is rotating ~365 times per year, x 11 years
that's 4015 rotations of the earth and 11 complete orbits around the
Sun. Two small rocks of the same exact type floated around the solar
system for millions/billions of years, and crash land within 1.4 miles
of each other only 11 years apart and they are not related?
So basically it's a coincidence? ;)
Regards,
Eric
On 3/7/2010 1:49 PM, Michael Blood wrote:
Hi Erich,
All the research I have found indicates no relationship.
Best wishes, Michael
On 3/7/10 11:03 AM, "Eric Wichman"<eric at meteoritesusa.com> wrote:
Hi Listees,
Perhaps this is a dumb question... The Wethersfield meteorite(s) two
stones fell 11 years apart, both of them crashed through the roofs of
homes, and both are L6 Olivine-hypersthene chondrites.
The houses that were hit were only 1.4 miles from each other.
Are these two pieces paired? Are they from the same meteoroid stream?
Article on the Wethersfield Meteorite:
http://www.peabody.yale.edu/collections/met/met_wethersfield.html
Newspaper Article - The Day:
http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1915&dat=19821109&id=yAMhAAAAIBAJ&sjid=Z
nUFAAAAIBAJ&pg=2345,1773959
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
METEORITICAL BULLETIN ENTRY INFO:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
Name: Wethersfield (1982)
http://tin.er.usgs.gov/meteor/metbull.php?code=24251
Observed fall: Yes
Year fell: 1982
Country: United States
Mass: 2.76 kg
FALL OF THE WETHERSFIELD (1982), USA, STONY METEORITE
Name: WETHERSFIELD (1982)
Place of fall: Wethersfield, Connecticut, USA.
41°42'38"N., 72°40'25"W.
Date of fall: November 8, 1982, 2114 hrs.
Class and type: Stone. Olivine-hypersthene chondrite (L6). Olivine
Fa25
Number of individual
specimens: 1 and small fragments
Total weight: 2756 g
Circumstances of fall: Following a fireball and thunder-like booms, a
mass of 2704 g and about 52 g of fragments were recovered after
falling
through the roof of a house in Wethersfield, Connecticut, USA.
Source: R.S. Clarke, Jr., Department of Mineral Sciences, Smithsonian
Institution, Washington, D.C. 20560, USA.
Note: The stone which fell in 1971 on the same town should now be
referred to as the Wethersfield (1971) meteorite.
Name: Wethersfield (1971)
http://tin.er.usgs.gov/meteor/metbull.php?code=24250
Observed fall: Yes
Year fell: 1971
Country: United States
Mass: 350 g
FALL OF THE WETHERSFIELD, CONNECTICUT, STONY METEORITE
Name: WETHERSFIELD
Place of fall: Wethersfield, Connecticut.
72° 39'E, 41° 42'N.
Date of fall: April 8, 1971. Probably between 0700 and 1100 GMT, and
certainly between 0430 and 1130 GMT.
Class and type: Stony. Olivine-hypersthene chondrite.
Number of individual specimens: 1
Total weight: 350 g
Circumstances of fall: The meteorite fell through the roof of the
home
of Mr. and Mrs. Paul J. Cassarino and was found in the early morning
suspended in a ceiling. The specimen was obtained for the Smithsonian
Institution by Dr. Richard E. McCrosky and is now in the Division of
Meteorites, Washington.
Sources: Dr. Richard E. McCrosky, Smithsonian Astrophysical
Observatory,
Cambridge, Massachusetts. Reports of the Smithsonian Institution
Center
for Short-Lived Phenomena, Cambridge, Massachusetts (Event number
35-71,
card number 1172 of April 17, 1971, and card number 1175 of April 20,
1971).
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
What are the chances of this being the same meteoroid(s) orbiting the
Sun and coming back around in 11 years to smash another house not 1.4
miles from the first?
Regards,
Eric Wichman
Meteorites USA
______________________________________________
Visit the Archives at
http://www.meteoritecentral.com/mailing-list-archives.html
Meteorite-list mailing list
Meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com
http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Previous message: [meteorite-list] Related Meteorite Falls 11 years
apart? Both Hammers! Both L6 Olivine-hypersthene
Next message: [meteorite-list] Record Nevada Chondrite Find
Messages sorted by: [ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
More information about the Meteorite-list mailing list
______________________________________________
Visit the Archives at
http://www.meteoritecentral.com/mailing-list-archives.html
Meteorite-list mailing list
[email protected]
http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
______________________________________________
Visit the Archives at http://www.meteoritecentral.com/mailing-list-archives.html
Meteorite-list mailing list
[email protected]
http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
