List, Stuart,
An eight-mile complex crater with a depth of
about a half-mile. Will take 100% casualties out to
about 35 miles and 70% casualties out to 60 miles.
High-speed ejecta 1 cm and up will reach out to
about 100 miles. Within the inner 75-mile-diameter
circle, expect the destruction of almost everything
and the death of almost everybody.
Even at 60 miles away, the fireball will deliver about
4 megajoules per square meter for about 3.5 minutes,
enough to produce deep third degree burns, and
cause trees and grass to ignite, as well as wood and
part-wood structures. Masonry structures would
collapse from the overpressure; steel structures
would survive best.
An ocean strike would form a smaller crater in the
seafloor but the thermal effects would be about the
same (actually a little worse). The tsunami would
be between 250 and 450 feet high. It would be
world-wide, reach far inland in some areas, and
would likely circle the globe more than once.
Either a land or sea strike would likely result in
comparable damages. Numbers would depend on
the population and structural density of the
area. Middle of the Sahara? Thousands. South
China Coast? Tens of millions.
Highly unlikely that any of the materials you
might gather after the region of the crater stopped
glowing would be part of the impactor, almost all
of which would vaporize. Terrestrial fragments
would dominate the region.
Sterling K. Webb
-------------------------------------------------------------------
----- Original Message -----
From: "Stuart McDaniel - Action Shooting Supply"
<[email protected]>
To: "Thunder Stone" <[email protected]>;
<[email protected]>
Sent: Wednesday, July 28, 2010 9:03 PM
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Scientist Warns Massive Asteroid Could
HitEarthin 2182
Not a mathematician are you?? LOL..........it's 172 years. Bet that will
make a nice strewn field!!!
Stuart McDaniel
Lawndale, NC
Secr.,
Cleve. Co. Astronomical Society
----- Original Message -----
From: "Thunder Stone" <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
Sent: Wednesday, July 28, 2010 6:23 PM
Subject: [meteorite-list] Scientist Warns Massive Asteroid Could Hit
Earthin
2182
Wow - that's only 72 years from now... Don't think I'll be around
Greg S.
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/07/28/massive-asteroid-hit-earth-warn-scientists/?test=faces
Scientist Warns Massive Asteroid Could Hit Earth in 2182
A large asteroid in space that has a remote chance of slamming into the
Earth would be most likely hit in 2182, if it crashed into our planet at
all, a new study suggests.
The asteroid, called 1999 RQ36, has about a 1-in-1,000 chance of
actually
hitting the Earth, but half of that risk corresponds to potential
impacts in
the year 2182, said study co-author María Eugenia Sansaturio of the
Universidad de Valladolid in Spain.
Sansaturio and her colleagues used mathematical models to determine the
risk
of asteroid 1999 RQ36 impacting the Earth through the year 2200. They
found
two potential opportunities for the asteroid to hit Earth in 2182.
The research is detailed in the science journal Icarus.
The asteroid was discovered in 1999 and is about 1,837 feet (560 meters)
across. A space rock this size could cause widespread devastation at an
impact site in the remote chance that it hit Earth, according to a
recent
report by the National Academy of Sciences.
Scientists have tracked asteroid 1999 RQ36's orbit through 290 optical
observations and 13 radar surveys, but there is still some uncertainty
because of the gentle push it receives from the so-called Yarkovsky
effect,
researchers said.
The Yarkovsky effect, named after the Russian engineer I.O. Yarkovsky
who
proposed it around 1900, describes how an asteroid gains momentum from
thermal radiation that it emits from its night side. Over hundreds of
years,
the effect's influence on an asteroid's orbit could be substantial.
Sansaturio and her colleagues found that through 2060, the chances of
Earth
impacts from 1999 RQ36 are remote, but the odds increase by a magnitude
of
four by 2080 as the asteroid's orbit brings it closer to the Earth.
The odds of impact then dip as the asteroid would move away, and rise in
2162 and 2182, when it swings back near Earth, the researchers found.
It's a
tricky orbital dance that makes it difficult to pin down the odds of
impact,
they said.
"The consequence of this complex dynamic is not just the likelihood of a
comparatively large impact, but also that a realistic deflection
procedure
(path deviation) could only be made before the impact in 2080, and more
easily, before 2060," Sansaturio said in a statement.
After 2080, she added, it would be more difficult to deflect the
asteroid.
"If this object had been discovered after 2080, the deflection would
require
a technology that is not currently available," Sansaturio said.
"Therefore,
this example suggests that impact monitoring, which up to date does not
cover more than 80 or 100 years, may need to encompass more than one
century."
By expanding the timeframe for potential impacts, researchers would
potentially identify the most threatening space rocks with enough time
to
mount deflection campaigns that are both technologically and financially
feasible, Sansaturio said.
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