Valid points Phil... My answer to your question. As many years as it
takes... Just like meteorite hunting, you have to look where they are,
and even if you're looking in the right place, you still might not find
them. ;) (interestingly enough, I think everyone here on-list can relate
to that)
Time scale though arguably the most important factor, is not the only
factor. You must consider the technical limitations of Radio, and the
distance such a transmission would be capable of traveling. It also
depends on the direction in which you listen, as well as "when" you are
listening. Putting things into a more simplistic perspective...
The child could be looking out the window at the wrong time. The horse
could have been there and gone. Or the child could be looking out the
wrong window at the wrong time. Or the maybe there are no horses in the
child's neighborhood. Or the child may see the horse, and not know it's
a horse.
Also to your point, (paraphrasing)"'...if they're out there surely we
would have heard them..." Is simply a rewording of Fermi's question.
Fermi's original question "Where are they?" is assumptive and based on
incomplete data. The point being, there is no possible "correct"
conclusion that can be formed either way at this time, because we didn't
have and still haven't enough data to form the original question in the
first place.
However, that is not to say that we (humans) aren't trying.
Regards,
Eric
On 9/16/2010 7:16 PM, JoshuaTreeMuseum wrote:
Interesting point Eric. My question is: how many years of complete and
total silence would it take to reach the conclusion there's just
nobody out there? 1,000? 10,000? a million years? a billion? a
googlezillion? You could listen for eternity, hear nothing and say,
well we just need a little more time. I don't buy the argument of
time scale. If there are aliens out there transmitting at anywhere
near the rate of Earth's output, surely in 50 years we would have
heard one little bit of Morse Code by now.
------------------------------------------------
Phil Whitmer
I might agree with that sentiment if there were enough information to
support it. However, I've got an interesting question about perspective
and time.
If a child looked out the window of a house for a mere 32/1000th of a
second and formed a conclusion that horses do not exist, would you say
he's correct?
Eric
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