I've got an idea. (imagine that) ;)
Since funding for space programs and missions seems to be so damned hard
to get, and budget cuts usually effect the space program first. Perhaps
someone should package this program/mission as a defense program. A
private company seems to get a government defense contract much easier
than a scientific study and research grant right?
Technically this is a war of our world. We're a sitting duck in a solar
system sized pond for those 140m and 1km sized objects. Anything larger
than 140m can do serious damage, kill millions of people, cause hundreds
of billions of dollars in damage, and damage the infrastructure of our
nation to an extent it would cripple us on a national security and
financial level such that's never been seen before in the history of
humanity.
After effects from an impact of even a 140m sized object say on
Manhattan Island NY would wipe out all of downtown New York City,
killing over 10 million people and destroying a world financial hub.
Disease would run rampant, hospitals for hundreds of miles around would
fill with the injured, and our first responder system would be
overwhelmed. It was overwhelmed with 9/11. I couldn't imagine an
asteroid strike. Not that an asteroid would slam New York, I'm just
using that as an extreme example. The statistical chance of one hitting
the Earth is very low, much less that it would impact New York. One
could impact in the ocean. 75% chance of that happening right?
Maybe that's why the gov isn't doing much on this? Statistics?
But those statistics are only based on the ones we know about. It's the
one you don't know about that gets you.
The more I learn about asteroids, meteorites, and where they come from,
the more I realize that there's more out there that we don't know, than
we do know. It's sobering for sure. The more we search, the more we
find. More eyes open looking up gives us a better chance of seeing one
before it surprises us. It just boggles my mind hat the gov doesn't
devote more time to this given that we are finding so many larger sized
asteroids out there at an ever increasing rate. It hasn't slowed, it's
increased, and as technology gets better, I'd hazard a guess that we'll
find ever more.
Little more than 100 years ago there was a little event in Russia that
leveled thousands of square miles of forest in a remote area. Tunguska
should have been a wake up call for everyone. But alas the human memory
is nothing compared to the cosmic memory of the universe. 100 years is
nothing in cosmic time, and we have no way to know whats out there
unless we're looking up.
Perhaps ignorance is bliss. Close your eyes everyone, it won't hurt
much. I think people may underestimate the number of rocks out there
with our name on it. Maybe I'm overestimating, but I don't think so.
Sorry if this seems all doom and gloom, but the USA perhaps should fund
this through both a scientific AND and defense related mission. Maybe
involve the private sector since the space program is going that way
anyway. Perhaps there's an industry there waiting to be born.
Regards,
Eric
On 4/14/2011 1:04 AM, Richard A. Kowalski wrote:
On 4/13/2011 11:41 PM, Meteorites USA wrote:
How much is the Earth worth? ;)
Eric
Hey Eric.
I know this was a bit of a rhetorical question, but I'll add a bit
more to this discussion for those who may not be familiar with the topic.
Unless I missed something, the United States is the only country
funding NEO surveys at this time, so apparently the "worth" of the
earth, as ascribed by the rest of the world is nothing, zip, nada. At
least on this topic
I think you're point is probably better formed by the question "How
much is our civilization or species worth?"
About one month ago we had a meeting here in Tucson consisting of
representatives from all of the current major NEO surveys,
professional follow up observatories, other associated parties and
Lindley Johnson and Don Yeomans. Don may be familiar to some of you
and he is the Manager of the NEO Program Office at JPL and Lindley is
the Program Officer at NASA HQ.
Lindley commented that as March 1st the estimated population of NEOs
1km in diameter and larger was estimated at 940 to 1050 objects. with
a total of 6938 known NEOs of all sizes. At that time we had
discovered 909 1km and larger NEOs, or approximately 87 - 97% of the
population. Since we were tasked at finding 90% of all NEOs in this
size range, we have effectively completed the original goal of the
Spaceguard program, but he did stress that "we" aren't ready to make
this claim just yet. To prove the point that we aren't quite finished,
I picked up another 1km object on my very first run on a telescope
after the meeting.
As you know the 1km diameter was chosen because it is the size object
that will end our civilization and anything much larger than that will
make us go extinct.
The next phase has not yet started, despite the claims in the media
last yet that we are already failing behind in the task. Kinda
confusing how anyone can claim we are behind in accomplishing a task
that we haven't been given the go ahead to start, but we've recently
seen you have to take the media with a grain or two of salt...
Anyway, the new goal reduces the minimum size to 140 meters in
diameter and this was chosen for a number of reasons, not the least of
which is objects this size can cause substantial damage and death on
national scales. If this next phase is funded, something not certain
at the moment, it should take 10 to 15 years to complete as well. Of
course again ground based surveys can do it with the lowest monetary
expense, but at a cost of taking longer to accomplish the task.
An important issue for issue for any ground based survey is that we
are literally blinded by the Sun. Because of this we can't see objects
that forever stay on the daylight side of our planet. To "see" in to
this blind spot in our coverage will require a space based system, but
not one that uses radar. A proposed IR telescope would the Sun not too
far out from Venus, looking back towards the earth. This proposed
mission would be able to detect all of these 140 meter objects that
threaten us, but it would still require the use of ground based
observatories for support and follow up observations, so it makes
sense to build ground based systems first.
It's been estimated that ground based systems would cost aa much as a
1/4 Gigabuck to build and operate for a decade or so, while the space
based system alone would be at least 1/2 Gigabuck. Combine the two and
figure on a bit of cost over-runs and $1,000,000,000 for all of Phase
2 spread over 10 or 15 years is not unreasonable.
One final thing; A disclaimer.
As I mentioned in a previous post, I am using my work email to post
only because the list server barfed on my yahoo address earlier tonight.
Nothing posted here is in any way an official statement from NASA, the
University of Arizona, the Lunar and Planetary Laboratory or the
Catalina Sky Survey. This and other posts are my own somewhat informed
opinion and should in no way misconstrued as "official" in any way.
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