Based on what I've seen from the airlines, the airlines are managing the
cancellations based on their business needs. Although a friend just had a
flight cancelled while they were on it and it was due to no controllers
available for that routing, whatever that means.

Kerwin
Passrider.com

On Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 5:45β€―PM Doug Church via Mifnet <[email protected]>
wrote:

> It’s not 20% … yet.
>
> It’s 4% currently. If no end to the shutdown next week, it will rise to 6%
> on Tuesday, Nov. 11, then 8% on Thursday, Nov. 13 and 10% on Friday, Nov.
> 14.
>
> I’m not aware of the analysis used other than DOT working with the FAA
> safety team to determine the appropriate level of cuts to ensure safety can
> be maintained with expected high levels of controller understaffing
> continuing the longer they are under extreme stress and fatigue.
>
> -Doug Church
>
>
> On Sat, Nov 8, 2025 at 5:50β€―PM ATHGroup--- via Mifnet <
> [email protected]> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> Does anyone know how FAA came up with the 20% target?
>>
>> Was there any analysis based on actual controller staffing or was it just
>> a guess?
>>
>>
>>
>> Michael
>>
>> xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>
>> R. Michael Baiada
>>
>> cell - (303) 521-6047
>>
>> [email protected]
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* Doug Church <[email protected]>
>> *Sent:* Saturday, November 8, 2025 13:04
>> *To:* [email protected]
>> *Cc:* [email protected]
>> *Subject:* Re: [Mifnet πŸ›° 74670] Flight Cancellations
>>
>>
>>
>> Michael,
>>
>>
>>
>> My understanding is each airline is cancelling their flights based on
>> their internal business criteria to meet the FAA's order.
>>
>>
>>
>> -Doug Church
>>
>>
>>
>> On Sat, Nov 8, 2025 at 3:09β€―PM ATHGroup--- via Mifnet <
>> [email protected]> wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> Does anyone know who is cancelling the flights during the shutdown
>> cutback?
>>
>>
>>
>> Is it each airlines cancelling their flights based on their internal
>> business criteria to meet the FAA cancel goal, or is it the FAA cancelling
>> the individual flights without regard to any of the airline’s business
>> interests?
>>
>>
>>
>> Michael
>>
>> xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>
>> R. Michael Baiada
>>
>> cell - (303) 521-6047
>>
>> [email protected]
>>
>>
>>
>> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
>> Revised: 20250507
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> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
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