Excerpt from Journal Ed. Report: Gigot: Finally this week, a crime theory demolished. My next guest says that the economic recession has had at least one positive effect-- to once and for all disprove the claim that unemployment begets crime. As the economy began to shed jobs in 2008, criminologists predicted that crime would shoot up. But the opposite has actually happened. More than seven million lost jobs later, crime in the United States has plummeted to its lowest level since the 1960s.
Heather Mac Donald is a senior fellow at Manhattan Institute and a contributing editor for the City Journal. Welcome. Mac Donald: Thank you, Paul. Glad to be here. Gigot: So some good news. Crime rate has continued to fall. What kind of magnitudes are we talking about here? Mac Donald: Extraordinary magnitudes, Paul. In the first six months of 2009, homicides dropped 10% nationally. Gigot: Wow. Mac Donald: Property crime, which is what you'd really expect to go up if the root-causes theory of crime is true--that it's a response in inequality and poverty--property crime went down over 6%, and violent crimes went down almost 5%. Gigot: So we're back at levels not seen since the 1960s? That's extraordinary. Mac Donald: It is extraordinary. And I credit the spread, ultimately, of efficient policing and incarceration. But this is exactly the opposite of what criminologists were hoping for--really gleefully hoping for--that the crime drop began in the '90s nationally would finally reverse itself and they could reclaim the dominance of the root-causes theory of crime. Gigot: Well, tell us about that, the development of this root-causes theory. That developed in the 1960s, and it's taken hold in widespread elements within the academy. Mac Donald: The academy and the media, of course. The idea was that crime really was a form of social criticism, that youth in inner cities came to understand that the American Dream was a myth and a cruel delusion. And when they found that the society was blocking their advance, they would turn to crime as a form of social protest. Gigot: And that really became widespread not just--and did begin to influence public policy. How so? Mac Donald: Extraordinarily, police chiefs bought the theory as well, that they couldn't affect crime. The FBI, in its annual crime reports through the late 1980s, said that homicide is a societal problem that the police cannot respond to. The root causes theory of crime was the big motivator for the war on poverty. It gave the government an excuse to engage in massive redistribution of wealth and social programs, because it could say, "Well, these have public-safety value. Since the police cannot bring crime down, the way we have to bring crime down is to take money from the rich and give it to the poor. Otherwise they will cause social havoc in the streets." Gigot: So this means that--I mean, whatever you think of welfare programs, whatever you think of job-creation programs or food stamps, whatever their utility as redistribution and income-maintenance programs--what you're saying is that those have almost zero utility as crime-fighting programs? Mac Donald: We should have known this after the 1960s, Paul. Gigot: Kind of makes sense. Mac Donald: Because the '60s saw a 43% increase in homicides nationally, at the time when the economy was growing, and what was really growing were government jobs. You had massive government jobs programs in the inner city to try and stop crime, but in fact it had no effect whatsoever. Gigot: So this dramatic change, what does this tell you about policing policy going forward? what should we focus on? Mac Donald: It's a very optimistic story, Paul. It shows that the government can create safety for its citizens by enforcing the rule of law. But it's also a cautionary tale. If crime starts going up, it will be because cities rashly cut their police force and start emptying prisons. We've had a fivefold incarceration increase since the-- Gigot: And that--you think incarceration--there's no question in your mind that increased incarceration has made a big difference. Mac Donald: It incapacitates people. It gets people off the streets. Gigot: Off the streets. Mac Donald: We keep hearing a myth that the only people--that we're sending more and more innocuous people to prison. That is not the case. The profile of the people going to prison today is not radically different than it was three decades ago. It's still a lifetime achievement award for crime. Gigot: So who are the heroes in this story, if you will? I have in mind the intellectual, but also political. I mean, who ended up--who has changed the thinking here that has caused police forces to go back to actual crime fighting and has--and have helped to blow up this social theory of the last 40 years? Mac Donald: Well, without being too parochial, I would claim New York City as the seedbed of this revolution. In the 1990s, William Bratton was police commissioner under Mayor Rudolph Giuliani. Gigot: And then went on to be police chief in Los Angeles. Mac Donald: In Los Angeles, which has, like--L.A. has seen double- digit crime drops since the recession. Both chiefs Bratton in L.A. and New York City's police commissioner at the start of the recession-- were the only chiefs in the country that said, We are going to keep lowering crime because we know how to do it. They've been proven absolutely right. Homicides in New York are down 19%; in L.A., 17%. Gigot: Wow. Mac Donald: We have started--in New York, that has spread across the country--a policing revolution that uses crime data obsessively and that holds local precinct commanders accountable. It's an accountability revolution as well as an information revolution. Gigot: All right, Heather Mac Donald, thanks so much. Some good news for a change. Thank you. Reminds me of one of my favorite liberal whines. "How can crime be down when we have so MANY people in prison? It's a Paradox!" dj -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups ""Minds Eye"" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. 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