Let's not get too carried away. Yes, the statement that the ice cap would be gone in 20 years was a preposterous exaggeration. But the statement that the icecap grew by 30% (I don't care whether you are talking volume, depth or mass) is equally preposterous and is immediately disproved by the number of ships now able to pass through the Northwest passage when that same passage has been ice-locked for centuries (since the 1200's):
"In the summer of 2000, several ships took advantage of thinning summer ice cover on the Arctic Ocean to make the crossing.[citation needed] It is thought that global warming is likely to open the passage for increasing periods of time, making it attractive as a major shipping route. However the passage through the Arctic Ocean would require significant investment in escort vessels and staging ports. Therefore the Canadian commercial marine transport industry does not anticipate the route as a viable alternative to the Panama Canal even within the next 10 to 20 years.[53]" [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northwest_Passage#Effects_of_climate_change a/o 20 August 2009] [also http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/09/070917-northwest-passage.html and http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/aug/28/climatechange.internationalnews?gusrc=rss&feed=networkfront ] In fact, Gerd Leipold's idiotic exaggeration was actually him misrepresenting a statement that the *Northwest passage* would be "completely ice-free" by 2030. Characteristically, he then blew that statement completely out of proportion, but it was based on a real event. And, before you ask, no, we don't have satellite records of the passage from before 1978, but we do have the records of dozens of sailors who died trying to find their way through the passage from the 1400's onward, including the recovered log books of the famous navigator, Lord Franklin. If you know your history: We was homeward bound one night on the Deep. Swinging in my hammock I fell asleep. I dreamed a dream and I thought it true, Concerning Franklin and his gallant crew. With a hundred seamen we sailed away, To the Frozen Oceans in the month of May, To seek a passage around the Pole, Where we poor seaman do sometimes roam. With cruel misfortune he mainly strove. His ship on mountains of ice was drove, Where the eskimo and his skin canoe Are the only ones that can ever come through. In Baffins Bay where the whale-fish blows, The fate of Franklin no man may know. The fate of Franklin no tongue can tell. Lord Franklin along with his seaman do dwell. And now my burden it gives me pain. For the sake of Franklin I would cross the Maine. Ten thousand pounds I would freely give, To say on Earth that my Franklin do live. We was homeward bound one night on the Deep. Swinging in my hammock I fell asleep. I dreamed a dream and I thought it true, Concerning Franklin and his gallant crew. ["Lord Franklin's Lament," traditional] Lord Franklin's expedition in 1845 became locked in ice in the CLOSED passage. Some of the crew survived stranded for years until succumbing to scurvy and lead poisoning (we suspect) from the lead-soldered canned goods which were an innovation on that voyage. Six or seven expeditions to recover him also failed. When the passage was finally discovered, it was still ice-locked and required an ice-breaker under steam to make the passage (and then only part year). This is strategically significant because the ice-locked passage has normally kept Russia's North Atlantic Fleet bottled up for a significant portion of every year, forcing them to rely on their Black Sea fleet or make passage through the well-defended and monitored GIUK- gap (Greenland, Iceland, United Kingdom) when ice was free of their northern ports. The opening of the Northwest Passage means that the Russian Navy can threaten both costs of the US with surface ships for increasing portions of the year. Russia has made moves to make mineral and oil claims in the Northwest Passage under a nebulous reading of International treaties. So, yes, Gerd Leipold is a ranting nutcase. We knew that. But the ice, for whatever reason you want to claim, IS changing. Sincerely, Eric Vought "Faith does not absolve us from trying to understand our world and make moral distinctions with the eyes and brain given us. Religion is as much responsibility as direction: Duty not Distinction." Sincerely, Eric Vought "Faith does not absolve us from trying to understand our world and make moral distinctions with the eyes and brain given us. Religion is as much responsibility as direction: Duty not Distinction." --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ This is a Free Speech forum. The owner of this list assumes no responsibility for the intellectual or emotional maturity of its members. If you do not like what is being said here, filter it to trash, ignore it or leave. If you leave, learn how to do this for yourself. If you do not, you will be here forever. -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
