Yes, supply of posters is increasing. There's a ton of auctions on eBay. A lot more than a couple years ago. What I meant is that the supply of desirable posters is vastly decreasing.
For instance, go to eBay right now and search for Scarface (just picked that title randomly) in ONLY the US Originals category. The first page of 50 results yields the following (and remember, this is in the original US poster category):
auctions - 50 reproductions - 47 reproductions incorrectly listed as originals - 3 original US posters - 0 original Foreign posters - 0 signed items - 1 authentic signed items - 0 stills - 1 original stills - 0 plaques - 2 auctions with a bid - 1 feedback rating on that high bidder - negative 1
So, if you're judging supply, it looks pretty good. Lots of items. Although, of that first 50, poster collectors are not going to want even a single one. Not one! Even if it was free! That brings demand down to zero - and prices as well...
I just checked, and the eBay sell-through rates (Ent. Mem.) for the last week are still hovering around 30%. That's one of the worst levels in all of eBay! Think about it. More than 2 out of 3 poster auctions end without a single bid. 2 out of 3!!! That means that the sellers are not selling what people want. Does Bruce get a 70% pass rate? No way in hell! He gets about 0% And, at any given time, he's got about 2-3% of the listings in the poster category. That means he's actually bringing UP everyone else's sell-through rates! It's actually worse than 2 out of 3!
I've got a list of 1 or 2 hundred posters I'm looking for. Most are in the $50-200 range. And, most of them used to show up fairly frequently on eBay (they're rare, so not that often, but a fair amount). Many of them I haven't seen on eBay in two years. And, the ones that do show up, always seem to go for a LOT more than they did the last time.
Sure, the supply of the undesirable posters has seemed to jump, but not the rarer stuff. That's all but dried up (compared to what it used to be anyways). And, being collectors, we're not interested in the widely-available crap - we're looking for the rare stuff, the posters from the best films, the great artwork, the obscure. And, there's not much of it out there...
Good night,
Bob
----- Original Message ----- From: "Richard Halegua Comic Art" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Friday, October 08, 2004 11:09 AM Subject: Re: [MOPO] FROM A COLLECTOR: Where have all the sellers gone, long time passing
Fellas..
Sean I agree with youthat in posters the great areas you mention are "as hot as rivets in a bucket" i also agree with Robert that those great huge deals are fewer and fewer every year.. Something that is apparent in every hobby.
However I do not agree that poster supply is decreasing, or that aside from the Universal & 50's horror that the rest of teh hobby is loaded with crap.
The simple facts are that Universal horror & 50's sci-fi/horror is not even 1% of the entire hobby by volume, even if it may be 25% by value as a matter of fact, that stuff is more like .1% (point 1 %) of the hobby by volume and that there are thousands more poster collectors who will never own any universal stuff for every one who will.
By that measure, the universal stuff is un-important to the largest segment of the hobby because they never plan to own any.
To dealers, what is most important (unless you are Ron Moore) is the great percentage of material that is non-top quality stuff that may sell for $200 and less, but which is by volume the most important part of our livelihood seeing as it is the area which most of us are able to buy. locate, list and sell as opposed to dreaming that we could make a living off selling 20-30 Universal posters in 2005. It isn't realistic.
As such, when most of us make comments about how prices ARE DROPPING, it is a truth that 99% of our listings get lower bids & lower sell through rates due to the fact that on eBay the same posters come up over & over, making posters that had been previously difficult to locate comparably easy in relation to the pre-ebay days
one of the best examples of a "changed value" is (non-poster item) the Batman 1966 Milton bradley board game. during the 80's-90's I used to sell this game for $150-200. I will never get that price again because every week you can find 10 "Joe the closet & garage cleaner" listing the same item on eBay and in the past week alone 5 copies of teh game have sold for less than $10. (no kidding, I looked) These sellers are not pros, they just want to get what they can for whatever they find, regardless of any other factors.
I agree that 50's horror/scifi is very popular and any fool knows that Universal stuff is great, but it just doesn't reflect the hobby as a whole in any way what-so-ever.
I also agree that some dealers have made a business of devaluing (unintentionally) 1000's of poster titles by making them so readily available on a daily basis regardless of how many they have listed in the last month. there are so many posters that we used to sell for $100 that are only worth $10 today it is unbelievable. Consequently, this devalues :
A) our knowledge B) our holdings C) our work
any of you who are auto-workers will recognize that as Chevy asking you to take a pay cut, eliminate your health care and cutting back to a 25 hour work week which results in the 2nd job at lower wages and less sleep for you each week.. Any of you who think this is acceptable are fooling yourselves.
It's the same as owning stock in Microsoft at $100 and then it slowly descends to $10 over the next 2 years, decimating your investment... This is exactly what is happening in the poster hobby and to some degree the comic hobby. Comics has less of this effect because the hobby is "controlled" by the price guide & by the dealers who in large part refuse to undersell themselves, thereby avoiding the "cut off your nose to spite your face" syndrome. Not to mention the incestuous relationship between dealers, the price guide & the collectors
However in posters the price guides are almost worthless as every dealers has his own "definition of value" which itself avoids many of the conflicts apparent in comics, but also results in no standardization what so ever beyond the top valued items & areas of course.
One benefit we have is that posters sell to non-collectors as well, whereas comics generally do not.
I agree that eBay has had a largely downward pricing effect on the large part of the hobby and about the lessening of quality merch on eBay... well if you couldn't get full retail value for quality material, why would you list it?? All I ever hear from collectors is how they expect a return on their "investment" and they want each bidder to pay all of their fees so they do achieve total value on the item and how they will use reserves to protect their investment, but conversely will not bid on reserve priced items because they know the seller wants full value. Sounds like a double standard to me
Channing is a real gambler to me and a great asset to teh hobby listing hundreds of GREAT posters at no reserve and at low starting prices making his exposure to losses a reality, but fortunately he has been able to do very well in that regard. It doesn't make him any less of a gambler as that White Heat 1sheet could easily have sold for $50.
But where does it put the rest of us?
Ebay has become anathema to our hobby because now that anyone can become a seller and the high profile and the 15 million items listed daily... the free for all can only result in degradation of the largest part of the hobby.
Rich============================
At 10:16 PM 10/7/04, Sean Linkenback wrote:>----- Original Message ----- >the terrible situation with our economy does not help me to purchase >more >posters seeing how poster prices have tumbled during the last three >years.
I keep hearing people talking about the dropping prices/crash/falling prices whatever you want to call it. Where exactly are these falling prices? On the crap from films that no one has seen and no one collects? I still see healthy prices for quality titles across the board.
If anyone wants to sell me their Universal horror pieces or quality 50s sci-fi at three years ago pricing - please don't hesitate to contact me! Heck I might even be generous and go as high as last year's prices.
Seriously though I am ready and willing to purchase Universal/Realart Horror pieces - especially lobbies and inserts (and please US pieces only, NO foreign material thanks).
Sean
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