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Peter,
I don't really see how extending end times by a minute or two encourages
any additional shilling. From what I understand, the point of shill bidding is
to do it early enough in the auction process to let other bidders see the shill
bid and have time to trump it if they really want the item. Seems to me shilling
in the last minute or two would expose the shill bidder to the very real danger
of actually winning the item.
And in the case of wanting to do it in the extended end time, a shill would
have to place their own last-second snipe to guarantee the end time was
extended. Remember, it is only extended if there is a bid in the last
second or two. The shill bidder would have no way of knowing for sure if there
were sniper bids out there that would pop in and trigger the extension. So, he
would have to do it himself. This could be death for the shill bidder as it
could easily lead to him *winning* the item (if no one else puts in a higher
snipe bid). Whoops. Bad move for the shill bidder.
But let's say the shill bidder sees that the auction has been extended by
two minutes. What does he do now that he would not have already done earlier,
long before the auction ended? Yes, he can place a bid and try to drive the
price up -- but he could have (probably should have) done that earlier, so
there is really no additional enticement to shill just because the end time has
been extended slightly. The shill bidder has no way of knowing what the maximum
of the other bidders is, so if he shills in the extended time he stands a very
high chance of winning the item, since there is so little time left from someone
to decide outbid his phony bid. It would be a risky business indeed.
I would guess most shills do their work earlier in the
auction process, trying to bid up the item while there is still plenty of
time to generate interest and to give the other bidders a chance to see and
consider the shill bid and have time to trump it if they really want the item.
Seems to me that waiting to the last second to shill would be ill-advised
and not really have the desired effect most of the time.
So, I don't really see that extending the end time on a auction which
received a last-second bid by a minute or two would lead to increased shill
bidding. Mostly it would just give serious bidders a chance to respond to the
"last bid" -- something they can't do when snipes at the last second determine
the winner of a fixed end time auction.
-- JR
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, June 15, 2005
23:54
Subject: Re: [MOPO] Beat The Clock or
Beat the Crook?
I'm afraid I'm going to have to drop into the "bad idea" camp on the
subject of extending bids - to me it's an open invitation to shill bidding and
shill bidders.
Knowing that it's possible to keep testing the limits of snipe bids (and
truly some of us po' folk can't spend all of our time in front of the computer
either) encourages shills to run up their items. Yes, yes, never bid
more than you're willing to pay but I'm only willing to pay that when I know
the auction can't be "rigged" so easily. It would seem that with all the
hoohaw lately about shill bidding this is a concept thats time has long since
passed.
I disagree with the idea that e**y is any different than "real" auctions,
to me they are identically the same. Bidders pay what they are willing
to pay in either situation, whether it's done in one go (for the sniper) or
over the course of a few seconds (for the sit-down bidder). Auctions
have always been about buying items at the price the folks in the audience,
whether at their computer or in the house, are willing to pay. One has
only to have experienced the frustration of bidding against "the house"
and not another warm body in sight to want to minimize the feeling in the
digital realm.
It seems to me that if you've got top quality items to sell you will sell
them at the price that that instant in time set. Inviting shills into
the equation seems like a huge step backwards.
Just my opinion though...
--Peter
Movie Poster Bid
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Claude,
I think we can assume that each of us values our limited
supply of time. First of all, a couple of clarifications:
It's not "my idea" -- it's an concept that has been
in place and operating on several auction sites for a while now and most
people seem to like it. When I first heard about it, my own initial reaction
was negative. After thinking about it for a while I've come around to the
conclusion that it can enhance the bidding environment for most people
(although as you explain it, perhaps not for you personally).
Bruce suggested applying the idea on MPB to me
about the same time we started thinking about it ourselves and indicated he
was in favor of the idea, even with his large number of auctions -- I have
to assume he has thought about the issues you bring up and has reached his
own conclusions about them. You'll have to ask him how he sees it working
for him or perhaps he will decide this is an issue he will comment
on as he monitors this list.
I don't see how you can disagree about agreeing to differ
-- we obviously have different concepts of what an internet auction
should be. I'm not going to tell you that your vision is wrong, but it
doesn't seem to be in tune with what most other people are telling me about
this concept (which is that they like it). Call them Mr. and Mrs.
Smallpockets if you will, but they make up the bulk of the auction
bidding public even if they don't necessarily end up
winning the highest ticket items.
But you're assuming it will be Mr. Smallpockets bidding up
Mr. Deeppockets (who doesn't have time for such foolishness). Not
necessarily. What happens if there are two or three of the Deep Pocket class
interested in the item? Under the last second snipes with fixed end times
approach, it still comes down to who guessed highest, or who simply threw
the most money into his sniper bid bucket, even if it is three whales vying
for the item.
But the seller does not get anything like the best price
he might have under those circumstances. If the auction end time had been
extended slightly, Mr. DP#1 could have seen that his snipe didn't cut it and
bid again. So could Mr. DP#2. Now Mr. DP# 3 (who had guessed highest
on his original snipe bid) has to continue to defend against serious
bids from his Deep Pocket peers. Even though he might consider it a
"waste of time", I doubt that his peers competing against him for the item
are of the same opinion. I also doubt that the seller of the item
considers such activity a waste of time. He's got himself a nice little
bidding war going on between two or more deep-pocketed collectors who want
his poster and he may be on the way to setting a new price
record.
Last second snipe-bidding with fixed end times
short-circuits this process and ends the auction without allowing a true
bidding war to develop. A lot of people are convinced that snipe-bidding
with a fixed end time consistently short-changes the seller of a desirable
item -- particularly now that the technique has become so prevalent
that most auctions don't get any serious bids during their 7 day run,
instead all of the "real bids" pop in at the last second in the form of
snipes. The bidding-up of an item that used to take gradually and go on
over the 7 day period and culminate at the end time now takes place
off-screen in micro-seconds with no one being able to respond properly to
the "last bid" with a higher one -- which is what auctions are supposed to
be about (to me, anyway).
Perhaps this is what Bruce is considering?
I dunno, but given the overwhelming public reaction in
favor of the idea, we definitely plan to give it a try (always assuming we
can make the whole deal work reliably, to include interfacing it with our
built-in sniper program so that a snipe bid can stay in play as the end time
is extended. It's tricky.).
-- JR
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, June 15, 2005
15:28
Subject: Re: [MOPO] How to Beat The
Clock
JR
Although I don't have the time to spar with you
on this subject I find it fun and therefore am taking a little more
of my working time to reply. I mention time because it is quite
important to me. I enjoy working, playing racquetball, spending
time with my wife, children, grandchildren and friends. I enjoy the
closing 10 seconds (though rarely) when I am at the computer and able
to see the last few snipe bids come in and the auction terminates.
If you think that I would ever spend time at a computer while Mr. Smallbid
keeps an auction going in perpetuity in the smallest possible increments
to see if he can beat out Mr. Deep Pockets, you have another guess
coming. I truly believe most people could care less about the
ability to see a constant stream of minimum bids arrive keeping an auction
going until they become bored to tears. The only ones who would not
be bored by having $35 posters going up in ! $1 increments from an opening
of $2.99 are those who are having mental orgasmic spasms. Don't you
realize that if a poster is at $10 and the winning bid is $35, this
auction could be extended 25 minutes? The excitement that is being
generated under these circumstances does not appear to be on a par with
anything unless you are masochistic and enjoy pain. If you are
bidding on a few items don't you realize how much time you would be at the
computer playing mental games with Mr. Smallbid who just loves to go up $1
at a time. The average item does not run into the thousands of
dollars. Your idea is a huge waste of time.
This bit about ebay auctions being a guessing
game as opposed to your keeping them alive and kicking is also
wrong. Mr. Small Pockets can only bid as much as he can afford, not
how high he can guess. Mr. Big Pockets can afford to bid, or guess
using your terminology, much higher. Whether you extend the auction
a few minutes or a few hours the person with the deepest pockets will
win. Let's also address psychology. Mr. Small Pockets wants
this system because Mr. Small thinks that if he only had one bid more he
could have outbid the sniper who in the last 5 seconds took the poster
away. Nothing is further from the truth. When Mr. Big wants
something Mr. Small will never win. An extra thousand bids will not
let Mr. Small win when Mr. Big wants the poster.
Now, let's talk about Mr. Hershenson---He places
around 1000 items a week on ebay. They end every 2 minutes or less
on a regular basis every Tuesday night. There are many people,
including me, who bid on approximately 20 items. How is it possible
and watch the auctions to bid on these items when there is no
end in sight for any of them? You have forgotten one
very important aspect of a live auction. Regardless of how
many items are being auctioned in a live auction, they go in order,
and until the hammer drops, the next lot does not come up for
bid. This is not the case in an internet auction.
Mr. Hershenson's posters will not be held up waiting for the hammer to
fall on the previous lot. Extending these auctions would create a
huge amount of confusion and rather than bidding on more
items, people will not bid on many items that they wanted ! to in the
first place.
I have not forgotten that for many years there
were no sniper bids. I have also not forgotten the small black
and white TV screens and no color TV, 7 TV stations in NY compared to
300 right now, no cellphones, no fax machines and huge computer
rooms with huge computers with less power than today's
laptops. I have adjusted to the complexities of life and the
improvements technology has made to enable us to do things faster and
better. I do not want to take steps back in time. Extending
auctions will not do what you think it will do. It will only add to
frustration and boredom and stifle progress. I have exhausted this
subject and if you still feel it is worthwhile, then sobeit.
You said in your opening that we agree to
disagree. I don't agree with that either.
Claude
Litton
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