----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, November 12, 2005 11:35
AM
Subject: Re: [MOPO] Shill me,
Seymour
Dario,
You know, even though I think of myself as worldly-wise, you point out a
technique I had never even thought of. If we postulate
that the seller is in on the deal, then yes, I suppose that with Private
auctions (where the bid history is never visible either during or after the
auction), it would be possible to "flush out" people's maximum bids by having
the shill simply bid until he is top bidder, then quickly retract or reject
the shill's last bid and leave the item sitting right at the real bidder's
maximum bid. That would be a fairly elaborate technique to orchestrate on
a large scale, however, and I suspect it would draw eBay's attention pretty
quickly if it were done hundreds of times during a single auction. Still,
it could happen. Another reason to snipe at the last second.
Taking the logic of this idea one step further, I suppose the
potential for this kind of abuse would be greater in private internet
auctions taking place in an non-eBay environment where there
was no "watchdog" behind the scenes who would ever see "something not quite
right here" like eBay might (I emphasize "might"). *Sigh* As Cat
Stevens said, baby, it's a wild world. As Ron very helpfully explained, at
least there are techniques you can use in a live floor auction to protect
yourself to some extent against shilling that simply aren't available in an
on-line environment.
But again, this is where the sniper programs come in handy and are an
excellent hedge against auction manipulation. You place a maximum bid that is
far lower than what you are actually willing to pay during the early days of
the auction. If it gets trumped -- for whatever reason -- you are waiting in
the wings with a sniper bid that will be placed in the last seconds which
contains your REAL maximum bid. Since all the snipes go off at the virtually
same time in cyberspace where no one -- not even the seller or eBay itself --
has any way of seeing what's happening in those last few seconds or
controlling it, trying to shill during the last few seconds would be foolish
and ineffective. Except in the case where all the shill is trying to do is
guarantee that the item doesn't sell to a genuine bidder for less than the
seller or consigner is willing to let it go for.
In truth, I think that most of the shilling which does occur, wherever it
occurs, is not so much evil intent as it is trying to make sure an item sells
for at least the minimum amount the seller wants to let it go for. Why not use
a reserve then? Well, because as we've seen on this list, most people will not
bid on an item with a reserve. So, the only other thing a seller/consigner can
do is place a minimum starting bid on the item that is the true minimum amount
that they are willing to let the item go for. But that discourages bidding as
well, as so many people won't bid on an item where the minimum is close to the
market value -- we've seen that on MPB -- because they want to believe they
can snap up a great item cheap, for a super-bargain price. This is
not realistic thinking on the part of bidders when it comes to quality vintage
posters, but that doesn't stop people from thinking way -- and
choosing which auctions to bid on based on that idea. As Bruce realized and
proved so many years ago.
So, you throw in massive competition from so many other sellers and you
end up in a situation where sellers/consigners feel they have no choice but to
start their items off at absurdly low minimum bids... even something as
insipid as a 99-cent starting bid on an original FRANKENSTEIN one-sheet.
But... honestly now... who is going to take a chance on that FRANKENSTEIN
one-sheet -- or any other valuable poster, even one worth "only" several
hundred dollars -- being sold for way below what it is worth just because
during that one 7-day period not enough people wanted it that bad... or had
the money that week... or saw the auction at all?
All of this can lead to "reserve shilling" where the shill is instructed
to get the price up to X dollars (the amount the seller/consigner is willing
to let the item go for) and then stop pushing and let the true
market take the item higher than that, if it turns out there is
enough interest in the item to do so.
It's a crazy situation -- people shouldn't feel they have to start
out valuable posters at absurdly low minimum bids and so be forced to resort
to this kind of thing to protect their investment, but sadly,
that's the auction environment which eBay has created over the years --
where you have this massive daily flux of tens of thousands of posters
being up for auction at all times in a global bidding environment.
And yes, Bruce had a whole lot to do with creating the public mentality
on eBay that ALL posters -- even very valuable posters -- should start
out at 99 cents. There's no question about that. But if he had not been
the one to do it, wouldn't someone else have come along and done it
eventually? Probably. I'm sure originally Bruce was just doing it as a PR
stunt, but the long-term effect on the overall marketplace has been very
deleterious for everyone else, and even for him to a lesser extent in the long
run, I think.
There are consequences for actions.
-- JR
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, November 12, 2005
10:14
Subject: Re: [MOPO] Shill me,
Seymour
Well spoken, JR
To make matters worse, "Private Auctions"
yes indeed the shillsheister can easy find out your reserve by bidding high
and then re tract.
You wouldn't even know it!
Best,
Dario.
JR
wrote:
Guys, guys, guys...
It's not that simple, and we all know it. Yes, if you set a maximum
bid and say "I will pay no more" you cannot be run up OVER that amount by
a shill -- but, dudes, you sure can be run up TO that amount, or darn
close to it, anyway.
To say that the shill doesn't know what the maximum bid you have
in mind may be is true, but that has never prevented shills in the past
from working the room, live or electronic, to see how high they could
push bidders who seem very interested in a particular item. That's why
they're called shills and why they've been around auctions since the days
when dinosaurs ruled the earth. Sometimes the shill guesses
wrong, pushes to hard and gets stuck. But a good shill... one with
experience who knows the market and the bidding audience he's working on,
can get a pretty good feel for what he can get away with.
So, a genuine bidder can end up paying much more for an item than he
might otherwise have paid if there is expert, experienced shilling going
on, let's not pretend that can't happen. I presume the possibility of this
having happened is what Dario is upset about. Understandably. But
unfortunately that's a danger in any auction -- shilling can happen
at anyone's auction. It can happen without the seller even being aware of
it, if it turns out to be a conspiracy between the shill and the
consigner, rather than the shill and the seller.
Kirby, Ron and others are correct in saying that the only thing you
can do about shilling -- since it can't be stopped, is almost impossible
to prove, and there's no way to know if it really is happening or if you
are simply up against another genuine bidder who also wants the item -- is
to stick to your maximum bid and not let yourself get pushed up any
further than you are really willing to pay.
Does this mean that you will lose a lot of auctions? You betcha.
Some of them you will lose to genuine bidders. Others you will stick the
shills with.
But there's always another auction, so all you can do is try to keep
from getting carried away in a last-minute bidding wars (whatever the
cause).
Oddly, the sniper programs have turned out to be a shill's worst
enemy.
-- JR
-----
Original Message -----
Sent:
Saturday, November 12, 2005 1:34
Subject:
Re: [MOPO] Bruces' sale and Heritage.
Ron and all,
I've expressed these same opinions both on MOPO and on the late
Movie Poster
Talk about shilling many times. You cannot be run up if you
exercise your own discipline
in bidding. Decide what you are willing / want to pay ahead
of time and stick to your plan.
Because you cannot control all this other stuff. It's the
only way to buy something for the
price you want at auction. There is no other
way.
Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com
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