At 09:11 PM 2/16/06 -0800, Randall Petersen wrote:
>As far as the theory that sniping leads to lower realized prices for
>sellers, well I would sure like to see that substantiated. Perhapas
>it's true sometimes, but my experience has been that, with really
>desirable pieces, bids come in so fast and furious in the last few
>seconds that the winning bid can be significantly more than what the
>piece usually goes for. And maybe, more than people would be
>inclined to pay, were they actually taking the time to think about it.
There is, of course, no way to substantiate it. Each auction
is a unique example and we cannot compare how the same
people would act in two different types of auctions for the
same piece. There are only theories. Your theory is that
"bids come in so fast and furious in the last few seconds that
the winning bid can be significantly more than what the
piece usually goes for. "
This seems counter-intuitive to me. It requires people to
unthinkingly place very high limits in the snipes they program
days in advance of the close of the auction. Why would they
have such excitement about bidding that far from the final
moment? Not really human nature.
It seems to me -- and seems born out by centuries of
observations people have made at traditional auctions --
that people really do get auction fever when they keep
making one bid after another, fighting with competitors, and
not having time to think about how much they can afford, how
much they really want the piece, and whether they're bidding
because they want it or because they want to win. None of
that seems to apply to sniping.
Certainly some people might place unrealistically high bids
into their sniping software, to insure success, but does that
really seem more likely or more common that "auction fever"
overcoming them?
Craig.
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Craig Miller Wolfmill Entertainment [EMAIL PROTECTED]
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