OK, then, taking it from the top:
Freeman's point is well taken -- none of the huge number of movie posters
produced in the last 10 to 20 years are going to do much to change the equation
of the 500 "old time" posters that will still be bought and sold years from now
-- most of them will be the same titles then as they are now. Maybe a few will
be added and a few drop off, but not many.
Rich has confirmed that MovieGoods.com (and probably others) print out their
own full-size repros on-demand at their Vegas plant. Doesn't that mean that
there is essentially an inexhaustible supply of these, then? That anytime
anyone wants one they can order it and have it printed up for them... even 10
or 20 years from now? OK, it's a repro, but how distinguishable is it from the
"international" single-sided "original"? Will anyone know or care? Do they put
an identifier on it that it is a MovieGoods repro? I've never seen one, so I
don't know. If so great, then we can identify them, but that doesn't change
the next point:
The math of some 6,000 or whatever theaters in the first week of release tells
you that there were, *at least* 20,000 original theater posters printed.
Probably more like 30,000 or more. Sure, some will be thrown away, but not very
bloody many anymore, not with the modern awareness of eBay and the fact that
you can sell movie posters on it for money. I'm betting precious few theatrical
posters from any blockbuster are trash-canned anymore. Now over time not all of
them will be treated carefully by collectors and dealers. Some will be tacked
on dorm rooms and eventually destroyed and tossed. But again, not as many as
used to be because of the greater awareness these days. My guess is that most
of those posters will still be around 25 or even 50 years from now and not
worth much. I know people said this about things like STAR WARS in the past,
which brings me to the next point:
STAR WARS, EMPIRE and RETURN OF JEDI were only released in about 1,500 to 1,700
theaters... not 6,000 or 7,000. Far fewer original theatrical posters were
printed comparatively and in those days there was no eBay and most posters were
either returned to the studios or trash-canned. Besides, none of those titles
are exactly scarce these days... 26 years later... nor do they sell for all
that much because even though in those days there were no internet wholesale
houses like MovieGoods.com, a whole lot of the comparatively small run of the
original trilogy STAR WARS posters *did* find their way into the hands of
collectors and sellers one way or another. And are you trying to tell me DEAD
MAN'S CHEST is going to have the staying power of the STAR WARS trilogy over
the next couple of decades? Please...
What they said about original trilogy STAR WARS posters may not have turned out
to be quite correct, but it certainly was correct for 99% of the other films
produced in the late 1970's and early 1980's -- most of them aren't worth much
these days and they printed far fewer originals for a release back then than
they do now.
And Sean, if you check, you'll see MovieGoods. com still has what they claim
are original DEAD MAN'S CHEST original advances which they bumped up to $29.95
for the release -- but until just a few weeks before the release I saw them
offered on both eBay and MPB for $10 to $20 bucks and I'm sure they will be
again once this current hype dies down (I give it 4 weeks top in today's
rock-a-go-go world).
Right now, today, can you make $10 bucks more on a PIRATES advance original one
sheet than you could 3 weeks ago? Sure. And that may continue for another 3 or
4 weeks... so if that's you're definition of bid money then by all means cash
in on the "goldmine" while it lasts. This temporary frenzy won't equate to
long-term price appreciation. You comment about picking up as many tubes full
at $9.95 each tells the tale and makes my point: How many sellers do you think
there are out there who have done exactly that? What do you think that is going
to do to the long-term prospects for the prices of original posters on this or
any other modern blockbuster? There are people on there sitting on thousands of
them, just waiting for the day they can sell them for big money. Me, I won't be
holding my breath.
No, with the exception of the lenticulars, I afraid I simply can't see the
posters from any wide-release modern day film ever being worth very much, even
if people did say similar things in the past.
-- JR
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