At 03:04 PM 8/11/2012, Bruce Hershenson wrote:
I guess if you are talking as an "investor" then yes, it is a "bad"
time to sell "out of favor" items that are currently selling for
lower prices than they once were.
And if you paid sky high prices at the "top of the market" then now
is a "bad" time to sell.
But some things will be higher in five years and others will be
lower yet, and I doubt anyone can say with any certainty which is which.
I saw some collectors holding on to "out of favor" items ten years
ago, waiting for a rebound, only to see them currently lower yet.
And there are also lots of items that were $20 ten years ago that
are $200 now.
the generalized statements in this post could be used for almost any
conversation talking about any type of item.
with more specificity, markets change and most of the time what those
changes are cannot be reliably predicted except in small areas.
For instance, Bruce and I have felt for 20 years that the comic book
hobby has been ripe for collapse.
well, while some parts have collapsed (golden age and silver age book
below fine 6.0 are generally worth 1/2 price guide give or take)
other have completely skyrocketed with the modern-era comic art being
the most obvious winners (excluding Action #1, which really has
nothing to do with anything else aside from other Action #1s). Never
in my life would I have thought that Frank Frazetta, Alex Raymond and
Hal Foster would not be the Gold Standard in b&w comic art, but Todd
McFarlane, Frank Miller and to some extent John Byrne have clearly
overshadowed those artists. Whether that can continue is debatable,
but the likelihood is that even if McFarlane's status changes due to
the fact that such prices for his art are being paid by a select
community and at some point they will stop also. So Bruce and I have
been both right and wrong.
on posters, it is clear where the market is headed
1) modern posters due to an influx of younger collectors in a process
we know as Generational Swapping which is in tune with older
collectors leaving the hobby and a reduced generational want for older posters
2) older posters of nondescript nature losing the greater part of their value
3) older posters of well known classics as well as horror & sf either
increasing in value, albeit at a slower pace than is historical due
to smaller % increases. The reason for this is that these films are
still shown, and people buy from good feelings memories. Gone With
the Wind will probably continue to be in demand in years to come,
while the large majority of all other Clark Gable films with the
exception of IHON and the Misfits will become $20 posters (for
40s-50s titles), if they haven't already.
so actors like Roy Rogers and Robert Young, being of less interest to
young collectors will lose value or salability, while Star Wars and
most certainly Harry Potter will be the peak of their era.
one more thing, where comes to "supply and demand" issues, it is
clear that 50% of the material pre-1970 in varying degrees from
earliest to most recent are very obviously more abundant than
collectors for such and that as you move up the scale from worst to
best even Creature From the Black Lagoon one sheets aren't selling
as well as they used to, in part because everyone still wants (or
needs to get) top price of the 2006-2008 market which was overheated.
There has to be a happy medium for even a poster of that nature to
sell, because at those price levels, supply IS greater than demand.
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