Hi Steven, Thanks for the question. It would all depend on how one is using the MoQ. Many seem to be waiting for slaughter. Cheers, Mark
On Tue, May 3, 2011 at 7:41 AM, Steven Peterson <[email protected]> wrote: > Hi All, > > > NasSim Taleb: > "My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves and the quality > of their knowledge too seriously and those who don’t have the guts to > sometimes say: I don’t know...." (Reminds me of Socrates) > > The Problem of Induction or why experience may have a negative value > for knowledge... > > "Consider a turkey that is fed every day for 1000 days. Every single > feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of > life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race > "looking out for its best interests," as a politician would say. On > the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something > unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of > belief." > > Consider the 999th feeding. "What can a turkey learn about what is in > store for it tomorrow from the events of yesterday? A lot, perhaps, > but certainly a little less than it thinks, and it is just that > "little less" that may make all the difference." > > Our confidence in our belief increases as we encounter more and more > evidence confirming our original hypothesis. > > "Consider that the turkey's experience may have, rather than no value, > a negative value. It learned from observation, as we are all advised > to do (hey, after all, this is what is believed to be the scientific > method). Its confidence increased as the number of friendly feedings > grew, and it felt increasingly safe even though the slaughter was more > and more imminent. Consider that the feeling of safety reached its > maximum when the risk was at the highest!" > > Does the MOQ help us not be turkeys? > Moq_Discuss mailing list > Listinfo, Unsubscribing etc. > http://lists.moqtalk.org/listinfo.cgi/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org > Archives: > http://lists.moqtalk.org/pipermail/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org/ > http://moq.org/md/archives.html > Moq_Discuss mailing list Listinfo, Unsubscribing etc. http://lists.moqtalk.org/listinfo.cgi/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org Archives: http://lists.moqtalk.org/pipermail/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org/ http://moq.org/md/archives.html
