No formula Platt, Beyond the numbers games, it involves recognising "chaotic" type unpredictability and uncertainty, and "emergent" effects beyond simple causation in complex interconnected systems.
So, for example, whilst we're calculating the value of a space mission to intercept a meteor, evaluate it's chances of success, and the chances of escape to an extraterrestrial biosphere if it doesn't (school-boy maths), the success of the mission may in fact depend on ... let me think ... 20th Century cinema culture maybe ? .... the outcome may have as much to do with 20th Century cinema culture as science or maths. And it would be a very strange use of the word "cause" to say the failure of the mission was caused by the fact that Joe Crew Member never saw the film Apollo 13 and didn't happen to have a roll of Duct Tape in his kit bag. "A butterfly flies through the forest rain And turns the wind into a hurricane. A schooboy yawns, sits back, and hits "return" And round the world computers crash and burn. Houtson, we have a problem. Ian On 2/21/07, [EMAIL PROTECTED] <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Quoting ian glendinning <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: > > > > I'm trying to get you to acknowledge the need to get to grips with > > dealing with uncertainty. > > What is your formula for "dealing with uncertainty?" > > ------------------------------------------------- > This mail sent through IMP: http://horde.org/imp/ > moq_discuss mailing list > Listinfo, Unsubscribing etc. > http://lists.moqtalk.org/listinfo.cgi/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org > Archives: > http://lists.moqtalk.org/pipermail/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org/ > http://moq.org.uk/pipermail/moq_discuss_archive/ > moq_discuss mailing list Listinfo, Unsubscribing etc. http://lists.moqtalk.org/listinfo.cgi/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org Archives: http://lists.moqtalk.org/pipermail/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org/ http://moq.org.uk/pipermail/moq_discuss_archive/
