Morphmet people --

I want to concur with Jacqueline Silviria and with Chris Klingenberg about
the difficulties of using morphometric analyses to infer phylogenies.  Just
to "violently agree":  This is a more general problem with quantitative
characters of any kind.  I often get asked how to use the
continuous-character maximum likelihood program Contml in my package PHYLIP
to infer a phylogeny from quantitative characters such as morphological
measurements.  Contml was originally designed for inferring phylogenies
from gene frequency data in closely related populations, under the
assumption that the mechanism of change is genetic drift.  Then it is
roughly possible to assume independent Brownian Motions of allele
frequencies, with equal variances of change.

For quantitative characters all these assumptions are highly dubious.  I
try to point out to the questioner that they cannot assume that the
characters are independent, and that they change with equal variances.  The
questioners rarely react with enthusiasm to this.

Of course there is a literature (Phylogenetic Comparative Methods) where we
have methods (which I guess we should call "Phylogenetic Comparative
Methods methods") that take a tree that is presumed known, or a cloud of
trees from bootstrapping or a sampled Bayesian posterior, and work the
other way.  Namely they infer the covariances between changes in a
multivariate Brownian Motion, given the tree.

I know that in the brilliant theory of Kendall, there are theorems showing
that if the individual landmark (x,y) coordinates have equal and isotropic
i.i.d. variances, then so will the coordinates in the shape space.  But
what that is doing is assuming that the differences we see are all
measurement error.  It does not guarantee independent i.i.d. Brownian
Motion when the changes along the branches of the tree are themselves
covarying among characters and with unequal variances.

I would encourage people to try going the PCM route: getting a tree for
living species and using it to infer covariances of changes in characters.
I have mentioned in a few places that from that one might even use the
resulting inference to place fossil species on a tree (perhaps Liam Revell
has published that suggestion too).

I would also note that there is a program, Threshml, distributed by my lab,
that uses Sewall Wright's "threshold model" to model discrete character
evolution, and to treat both continuous and discrete characters in the same
analysis.

Joe
----
Joe Felsenstein        felse...@gmail.com,   felse...@uw.edu
<j...@gs.washington.edu>
 Department of Genome Sciences and Department of Biology,
 University of Washington, Box 355065, Seattle, WA 98195-5065 USA
-----
 PS: please do not use  j...@gs.washington.edu, which is an alias
 that some mail systems now mistake as indicating spam.

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