This article is from a few days ago from the Sioux Falls ARGUS LEADER, South Dakota's largest newspaper. It was sent to me by Paul Baicich, a friend in Maryland. South Dakota won't be the only place this happens, not that Minnesota has much duck habitat left. Jim Williams Wayzata, Minnesota
Global warming may threaten ducks South Dakota's wetlands could evaporate with climate change BEN SHOUSE [email protected] 2 July 05 BROOKINGS - Hunters and environmentalists have forged a tentative alliance to conserve wildlife habitat in recent years, but new studies are nudging that alliance toward a more controversial issue: global warming. Most people know little about the uncertain business of forecasting climate change. But on Friday, a group of hunters, biologists and officials gathered here to tour local wetlands and point out the connection between duck hunting and predictions of rising temperatures. New research from South Dakota State University and a new conservation report suggest that warming could make duck habitat literally evaporate. That would force ducks eastward and out of the state's crucial pothole wetlands, which produce 95 percent of the ducks in the continental United States. "No water, no ducks, no hunting," said Land Tawney of the National Wildlife Federation, by way of connecting the dots.The Montana-based conservation group released a report this week called "The Waterfowler's Guide to Global Warming." The guide, and the issue of warming in general, poses a dilemma for conservationists of all political stripes: A coalition of hunters and environmentalists could prove a decisive voice on the issue, but the controversy surrounding it also could jeopardize their unity. The fate of North American waterfowl and its habitat lately has served as common ground for hunters and environmentalists. In 2003, for example, duck hunters prodded the Bush administration to conserve more wetlands. And in April, about 5,000 hunters and conservationists came together on the Minnesota capitol mall for the Ducks, Wetlands and Clean Water rally. Tony Dean is one prominent member of what might be called this green-orange coalition. The outdoor TV host from Pierre wrote the forward to the NWF report, taking a stand against some of his fellow Republicans' views on global warming. "Carried to the worst potential scenario, it could surpass even agricultural drainage, and essentially end waterfowl hunting," he wrote. "What we're trying to do here is create a middle ground between the Chicken Little crowd on the extreme left and the 'never react to something unless it hits you on the head' of the right," he said Friday. But he said he does not know how readily hunters will embrace the issue. "Sportsmen are notoriously slow to react, and they really have to lose something before they tend to react." According to scientists, the first thing they'll lose could be wetlands. Shallow, seasonal ponds and sloughs are indispensible habitat for ducks and a larder of insects and other tiny critters that ducklings need. Farmers have drained more than 90 percent of the wetlands in western Iowa and Minnesota, said Carl Madsen, a retired U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service official. Drainage has affected only about one-third of South Dakota's wetlands. But Carter Johnson, a professor of ecology at South Dakota State University, said climate change could finish the job. Long-term data has documented rising air and ocean temperatures, and a large body of research links it with a concurrent rise in carbon dioxide from human industrial activity. Various studies predict that will lead to an increase of anywhere from 2 to 6 degrees Celsius in the next 50 to 100 years. An average warming of 3 degrees Celsius - which is 5.4 Fahrenheit - would accelerate evaporation, lowering water levels in most wetlands, according to forthcoming research by Johnson and colleague Bruce Millett. That would reduce the value of most South Dakota wetlands for ducks, pushing them eastward and driving their populations well below current levels, Millett says. Previous research said warming could shrink crucial pothole wetlands by 90 percent and duck populations by 70 percent. A 3-degree warming would clearly cause other major problems, such as a rise in sea levels of perhaps three feet and major shifts in agriculture, Johnson said. But a catastrophic loss of wetlands could be one of the most noticeable and irrevocable changes in the region, he said. And it would have implications far beyond South Dakota. The "prairie pothole region" of the Dakotas and Montana produce 95 percent of the ducks born in the continental United States, Tawney said. Loss of wetlands here would rob the avid duck hunters of Arkansas and Louisiana of their game. Those predictions, as with all forecasts about global warming, are based on computer simulations. Scientists must resort to these models because the Earth's atmosphere and oceans are complex beyond human understanding, Johnson said. Computer models might raise public suspicion, but he said scientists have seen their predictions verified by real climate data. "The uncertainty is not that it's going to get warmer or not, but how much warmer and where," he said. Getting that message to the public can be difficult, but Johnson says he sees progress. His duck-hunting buddies, for example, come from across the political spectrum, and until about five years ago, he never would have talked about his research while sitting in a duck blind. But now, he says, "it's getting more traction." "It's getting more visible. I think the evidence is more clear," he said. "Therefore, I think those discussions are going to go on in the blinds more than they have in the past." Some duck hunters with less knowledge of climate science are beginning to agree. Todd Heidelbauer, 32, of Sioux Falls says he noticed a drop in the quality of duck hunting during the recent drought. He says it makes sense that a drier climate could lead to a more permanent decline. "It makes me want to work even harder with the conservation organizations to buy up more land for public use and place water-conservation structures on the land," he said. Pat Gross of Vermillion, a duck hunter and former U.S. Department of Agriculture employee, said climate change is real, and he fears for what it will mean for wildlife. But he attended the Minnesota duck rally at the Capitol in April and was encouraged by the hunters and conservationists who want to save duck habitat. "There was some unprecedented hand holding between organizations that typically don't always agree," he said. "I tend to believe that there is kind of a new sense of understanding emerging, and people are willing to abandon some of their philosophical commitments to do the right thing for natural resources." Russel A. Daniels / Argus Leader
