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All, I just got informed that I mis-spoke regarding the Manitoba/Ontario provincial line. The map of the US I was looking at made it look like Ontario just covered a sliver of Minnesota above Grand Portage, however when looking at a bigger map of just Minnesota, it showed very clearly that Ontario covers a significant part of Minnesota, with Manitoba starting around Warroad. I apologize for the misinformation regarding the provincial lines. I still believe based on emails with Ron that his forecast "sort of" applies to Minnesota, but moreso seems to apply much farther east of here around the area north of Toronto. I do find it very interesting to read the report, and then compare it to our own cone crops/ash berry crops and actual migration movements of winter finches to see how the activity in Minnesota compares to what is predicted for Southern Ontario. I plan to keep trying to send along information to Ron, when applicable, so that possibly in the future the forecast can expand its geographic specifity as well as become increasingly accurate. Cheers, Chris Fagyal Senior Software Engineer IBM Certified Solution Designer - Rational Software Architect BAE Systems Land & Armaments Fridley, MN (763) 572-5320 [email protected] >>> "Chris Fagyal" <[email protected]> 11/3/2006 12:01 PM >>> All, Keep in mind that the finch forecast that is published by Ron Pittaway is not a forecast for Minnesota or any states whatsoever. It is a forecast for southern Ontario, Canada, as Ron is an Ontario Field Ornithologist, and looks specifically at movements as well as seed crops in northern Ontario. Ron specifically states in his acknowledgement section: "I thank the many birders and staff of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR) whose composite knowledge and reports allowed me to make reasonable predictions about finches in Ontario this fall and winter." Nowhere does he predict anything about the states, though from his predictions about Ontario you may be able to glean possibilities regarding Michigan perhaps, and New York perhaps. Also remember that one of the major landmarks discussed with regards to places to see winter finches is Algonquin Park in Ontario. This park is 3 hours north of Toronto, so we are talking a significant distance (750+ miles?) east of northern Minnesota. I've had multiple e-mail exchanges with Mr. Pittaway and some of the information gleaned is as follows: 1) The forecast for finches applies somewhat to Minnesota, but is most accurate for Southern Ontario. Most all of Minnesota is actually directly south of Manitoba province, not Ontario. 2) The forecast this year talked about bumper seed crops for almost all species of conifers and deciduous trees in much of eastern Canada and speculates that finch movement in southern parts of Eastern Canada will be limited. However, it also states that cone quality diminishes towards Manitoba because of severe drought conditions this year. Given this drought condition in Manitoba, the province directly north of us, that may be one of the reasons why we are seeing large finch movements southwards into Minnesota this year. One of the best way we, in Minnesota, can help Ron out (if we wish to possibly see some more information in the Finch forecase which may be directly applicable to Minnesota) is to provide him information when we are seeing movements of finches and their brethren during the summer, fall, and winter as well as provide him information on crops of cones, birch seeds, mountain ash, etc. I have tried to give him bits of information that I have gleaned from both the listserver as well as personal birding experiences to help him along. His list of contributors for this years forecast is significant, but I am the only one from Minnesota that provided any information (I let him know about the influx of Red Crossbills that were seen in Duluth at Hawk Ridge and asked if that was a usual occurrence seeing such migration). Most all of his contributors are from various parts of Ontario. Chris Fagyal Senior Software Engineer IBM Certified Solution Designer - Rational Software Architect BAE Systems Land & Armaments Fridley, MN (763) 572-5320 [email protected] >>> "Mike Hendrickson" <[email protected]> 11/3/2006 11:30 AM >>> Duluth weather is very hard to predict and most times our local weathermen on TV are normally wrong when it comes to forecasting the weather in Duluth. Well, I scan over each fall season the finch forecast that is forwarded to the MOU listserv and I read how the states will see very little winter finches this winter season because of the bumper crop of seed in birches, other decidous trees and coniferous trees. WELL in the last week or so there has been a good steady migration of common redpolls, red & white-wing crossbills, pine grosbeaks, evening grosbeaks, purple finches and pine siskins moving down the northshore of Lake Superior. This past week I had common redpolls at my feeders along with purple finches and siskins. So is it just me that the finch forecast we read on our listserv each fall season is about as good as listening to your local weatherman on TV predicting the weather? Michael Hendrickson Duluth, Minnesota http://webpages.charter.net/mmhendrickson/ --=__PartA98DAA52.0__= Content-Type: text/html; charset=ISO-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Description: HTML <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; charset=3Diso-8859-1"= > <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1528" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY style=3D"MARGIN: 4px 4px 1px; FONT: 10pt Tahoma" bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV>All,</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I just got informed that I mis-spoke regarding the Manitoba/Ontario = provincial line. The map of the US I was looking at made it look = like Ontario just covered a sliver of Minnesota above Grand Portage, = however when looking at a bigger map of just Minnesota, it showed very = clearly that Ontario covers a significant part of Minnesota, with Manitoba = starting around Warroad. I apologize for the misinformation = regarding the provincial lines. I still believe based on emails with = Ron that his forecast "sort of" applies to Minnesota, but moreso seems to = apply much farther east of here around the area north of Toronto. I = do find it very interesting to read the report, and then compare it to our = own cone crops/ash berry crops and actual migration movements of winter = finches to see how the activity in Minnesota compares to what is predicted = for Southern Ontario. I plan to keep trying to send along information= to Ron, when applicable, so that possibly in the future the forecast = can expand its geographic specifity as well as become increasingly = accurate.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Cheers,</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Chris Fagyal<BR>Senior Software Engineer<BR>IBM Certified Solution = Designer - Rational Software Architect<BR>BAE Systems Land & Armaments<= BR>Fridley, MN <BR>(763) 572-5320<BR><A href=3D"mailto:Christopher.E.Fagyal= @baesystems.com">[email protected]</A><BR><BR><BR>>>= ;> "Chris Fagyal" <[email protected]> 11/3/2006 = 12:01 PM >>><BR></DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt Tahoma; COLOR: #000000"> <DIV>All,</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Keep in mind that the finch forecast that is published by Ron = Pittaway is not a forecast for Minnesota or any states whatsoever. = It is a forecast for southern Ontario, Canada, as Ron is an Ontario Field = Ornithologist, and looks specifically at movements as well as seed crops = in northern Ontario. Ron specifically states in his acknowledgement = section: "I thank the many birders and staff of the Ontario Ministry of = Natural Resources (OMNR) whose composite knowledge and reports allowed me = to <BR>make reasonable predictions about finches in Ontario this fall and = winter." Nowhere does he predict anything about the states, though = from his predictions about Ontario you may be able to glean possibilit= ies regarding Michigan perhaps, and New York perhaps. Also = remember that one of the major landmarks discussed with regards to places = to see winter finches is Algonquin Park in Ontario. This park is 3 = hours north of Toronto, so we are talking a significant distance (750+ = miles?) east of northern Minnesota.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I've had multiple e-mail exchanges with Mr. Pittaway and some of the = information gleaned is as follows:</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>1) The forecast for finches applies somewhat to Minnesota, but is = most accurate for Southern Ontario. Most all of Minnesota is = actually directly south of Manitoba province, not Ontario.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>2) The forecast this year talked about bumper seed crops for almost = all species of conifers and deciduous trees in much of eastern Canada and = speculates that finch movement in southern parts of Eastern Canada will be = limited. However, it also states that cone quality diminishes = towards Manitoba because of severe drought conditions this year. = Given this drought condition in Manitoba, the province directly north of = us, that may be one of the reasons why we are seeing large finch movements = southwards into Minnesota this year.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>One of the best way we, in Minnesota, can help Ron out (if we wish to = possibly see some more information in the Finch forecase which = may be directly applicable to Minnesota) is to provide him information= when we are seeing movements of finches and their brethren during the = summer, fall, and winter as well as provide him information on crops of = cones, birch seeds, mountain ash, etc. I have tried to give him bits = of information that I have gleaned from both the listserver as well as = personal birding experiences to help him along. His list of = contributors for this years forecast is significant, but I am the only one = from Minnesota that provided any information (I let him know about the = influx of Red Crossbills that were seen in Duluth at Hawk Ridge and asked = if that was a usual occurrence seeing such migration). Most all of = his contributors are from various parts of Ontario.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Chris Fagyal<BR>Senior Software Engineer<BR>IBM Certified Solution = Designer - Rational Software Architect<BR>BAE Systems Land & Armaments<= BR>Fridley, MN <BR>(763) 572-5320<BR><A href=3D"mailto:Christopher.E.Fagyal= @baesystems.com">[email protected]</A><BR><BR><BR>>>= ;> "Mike Hendrickson" <[email protected]> 11/3/2006 11:30 = AM >>><BR></DIV> <DIV style=3D"COLOR: #000000"> <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" size=3D2>Duluth weather is very hard to = predict and most times our local weathermen on TV are normally wrong when = it comes to forecasting the weather in Duluth. Well, I scan over each = fall season the finch forecast that is forwarded to the MOU listserv = and I read how the states will see very little winter finches this winter = season because of the bumper crop of seed in birches, other decidous trees = and coniferous trees. WELL in the last week or so there has been a = good steady migration of common redpolls, red & white-wing = crossbills, pine grosbeaks, evening grosbeaks, purple finches and pine = siskins moving down the northshore of Lake Superior. This past = week I had common redpolls at my feeders along with purple finches and = siskins.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" size=3D2>So is it just me that the f= inch forecast we read on our listserv each fall season is about as good as = listening to your local weatherman on TV predicting the weather? </FON= T></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" size=3D2>Michael Hendrickson<BR>Duluth, = Minnesota<BR><A href=3D"http://webpages.charter.net/mmhendrickson/";>http://= webpages.charter.net/mmhendrickson/</A></FONT></DIV></DIV></DIV></BODY></HT= ML> --=__PartA98DAA52.0__=--
