I agree with Shawn in this case. It seems to me that the case is some
what over stated in the Audubon article. I have not doubt that Global
warming is a problem that we all need to be concerned about; However,
Wild Turkey expansion is not a good example since they very wide spread
at one time then, the population was decimated and now with
re-introduction they are simply moving into areas that they previously
inhabited.
Rick
shawn conrad wrote:
I'd like to preface this bay saying first that this is in no way directed
toward Gordon as I appreciate him posting this and second that I am NOT a
global warming doubter, I DO believe the prevailing scientific opinion
regarding the role of human beings in global warming, and I realize that
warming of even a few degrees will likely result in significant problems for
humans and nature alike. However...
I did visit this link, the report, and I did read the article on this report in the STrib and I think Audubon is probably painting an incomplete picture here. Basically, they are saying that CBC data shows birds wintering or residing far north of their historic ranges so global warming must be the culprit...and they might be right, global warming may be a factor.
However, does anyone believe that global warming alone has moved Purple Finches 400 miles already?
I don't think ornithologists are being fair to anyone to completely gloss over the effects of the increased popularity and sophistication of bird feeding, changes in habitat (both "good" and bad), and increased observer coverage. Corridors of development filling in farther north may be helping human-adapted or disturbance-adapted birds move north. Increased availability of fruit in the north like Common Buckthorn (bad!) and planted crabapples may sustain more birds in the winter. Habitat loss to the south may discourage birds from returning to wintering grounds. Increasing forest age in the north (regrowth from logging heydays) may create habitat for more birds in the north. More people looking for birds in the north increases observations.
I don't know if all of these are a factor, and I could probably sit here and hypothesize more. But, certainly some of them are a factor and none of them are addressed at all in the Audubon report...at least not where the casual observer would find them.
Again, global warming probably is a FACTOR...especially with birds of the boreal spruce forest like Spruce Grouse receding on the southern edge of their range. But, we need to be honest that there are likely compounding explanations. This doesn't mean that global warming isn't a serious problem. What it does mean is that it is an additional stress combined with other stresses that we also need to address, like overdevelopment.
This is especially important for nonbirders to understand. I can't count the
number of times nonbirders have asked me about the robins they have seen this
winter or the cardinals increasing up north and whether global warming is the
reason. Generally, I tell them it's not quite that simple and ask them how
much time they have to hear my thoughts...
Shawn Conrad
http://users.2z.net/itasca_chippewa_birding/
Check out <http://www.birdsandclimate.org> www.birdsandclimate.org.
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