In recent messages, people have stated that they felt there was "low
turnout" at DFL Ward Conventions.
I'm wondering what kind of turnout they are expecting, and what they are
comparing this year's attendance to?
Do people really expect 100%, or anything approaching that, at these
Conventions? If so, I would say such expectations are not realistic.
Here are the numbers I have from some of this year's Ward Conventions:
9th Ward 78% attendance
12th Ward 76% attendance
11th Ward 61% attendance
2nd Ward 51% attendance
5th Ward 55% attendance
This is comparing to the total number of delegates elected a year ago, at
the 2000 precinct caucuses, without taking into account people that have
moved, etc. since then. (In 12th ward, for example, we knew that 5.5% of
the delegates had moved, 1.5% were senior citizens wintering in the south,
and .5% had died. So our best possible would have been about 92%
attendance. And this just the ones we knew about.) In the 6th Ward
(heavily renters, and very mobile) over 30% of the delegates from the 2000
precinct caucuses have moved since then!
At the year 2000 Senate District 62 Convention, which was held on the same
day at the same location as the Precinct Caucuses, and which had major
contests in all 3 races, we still had only 86% of the people (elected that
very morning) who stayed for the Convention that afternoon.
Here are some past attendance figures for comparison. These are from
Senate District Conventions, typically held 4-6 weeks after the Precinct
Caucuses.
SD62 2000 86% attendance
SD62 1998 69% attendance
SD62 1996 61% attendance
SD62 1992 79% attendance
SD58 1992 73% attendance
SD62 1990 70% attendance
SD62 1990 53% attendance (Special convention when Donna Peterson resigned)
My impression is that attendance at this year's Ward Conventions is pretty
similar to past conventions. The attendance goes up only when people think
that there is a close race in a particular ward.
-------------------------
Of course, another interpretation of these numbers is attendance has been
dropping about 10% per week, as the outside temperature rises about that
same amount! :)
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