Remember: our rules allow pointed disagreement, but require respectful discussion.
--
RT's quote to the contrary, I think the RT camp was disappointed with the
Strib Poll that came out on Sunday. It has to be disappointing to win the
primary by 7 points and then find yourself in a statistical dead heat with
the person you just beat. My guess is that they would've thought that they
had a good 4 to 6 point lead.
One thing I didn't get from the article was whether or not the poll included
likely voters, registered voters, or just those over 18. I think we can all
agree that it appears that RT's supporters are more rabid about their
support and will probably be voting on November 6th regardless of weather,
world events, or personal health. If the poll included likely voters, RT's
support may not be as strong as thought. If the poll only included
registered voters, then RT may be looking pretty good. Overall, I thought
the article was slanted toward the mayor and may portend to the type of
coverage we can expect from the Strib.
Here are what I think are the strategies each camp needs to pursue in the
next 6 weeks.
RT:
RT probably has a lock on the 10th, 11th, and 13th Wards. The margin of
victory in in those three wards could propel him into victory. RT needs to
make SSB's margin of victory in the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 8th Wards as small as
possible so that that they don't match the relatively high voter turn out
southwest wards. RT should work the 1st Ward hard with Paul Ostrow as well
as work the northern wards west of the river. Strong alliances with the
Green candidates in the 2nd and 6th wards will also help neutralize what
should be strong SSB wards.
RT's biggest negative is his lack of experience, and given the recent
horrible events and the fact that people are concerned about the future, it
is a legitimate issue for the Mayor to raise. RT will have to be super
careful he doesn't say anything or do anything that makes it appear that he
is "not ready for prime time." Such an action or statement would be pounced
on by the mayor and could do real damage. A coordinated door knocking
effort and face to face meetings probably help erase doubts about RT's
ability to lead.
SSB:
The mayor needs a massive voter identification and get out the vote effort
in her strong wards, namely 3,4,5, and 8. Although these wards will
probably fall in the SSB camp, they are historically the wards with the
lightest turnout. Given RT's support in the higher turnout wards, the Mayor
will need to get every one of her supporters registered and at the polls.
Without that effort, she will lose.
SSB will also have to hammer on RT's achilles heal: his lack of experience.
People are really nervous out there any may not feel like they can afford to
experiment with an unknown factor. Even if RT doesn't say or do something
dumb that makes people question his judgement, SSB will have to hammer on
RT's stands that are out there. For example, RT's affordable housing plan
is pretty lame and could be legitimately attacked. Unfortunately the
Mayor's plan is just as lame so it may take a deft hand. The point is to
convince the voters that we can't afford to put our shaky future into the
hands of someone who is so untested.
Should be an interesting race and, given no huge surprises, should be a
close one with the winner in the 52 to 53 percent range.
Dean E. Carlson
East Harriet, Ward 10
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