Sorry it took the geek a day to digest the news on redistricting. First things first -
I understand the Redistricting Commission members displayed some partisan maps at last week's public meeting. Still nothing on the web, though! Since the Commission (ahem) hasn't posted these working documents, and the city's website has never contained maps, I'll offer the services of my Redistricting Geek website, http://members.tcq.net/david/index.htm. To those with power and maps: just hit reply and send me your graphics, and I'll happily post! (I hope Fred, who has been the singular commissioner getting info on the web, can at least post the Green plans on his site - as well as the other parties'.) Also...Terry Collins' Friday Strib piece (http://www.startribune.com/stories/462/2134368.html) contained an interesting section: "While commission members would not say specifically where the lines would be redrawn, they did say that with changes in the population, minority members could be the majority in three to six wards. They include the Third, Fourth, Fifth, Sixth, Eighth and Ninth wards." Six majority-minority wards? That number made this geek's jaw drop! That's 46 percent of the city's 13 wards...but according to the 2000 census, Minneapolis's minority population is at best 35 percent of the city. (Raw numbers: 249,186 Minneapolis residents identified themselves as "white only," divided by 382,618 residents = 65.1 percent "white" or 34.9 percent minority. I'm only counting those identifying themselves "white only" as white so as not to undercount minority percentages. Source: http://www.ci.minneapolis.mn.us/citywork/planning/Census2000/2000-Minnea polis-Redistricting-Data.asp) If you go by the principle that, all specific candidate factors aside, council representation should reflect city population, that means there should be 4-5 minority council members (4.537, or 34.9% minorities times 13 council seats) on the new council. Right now, it is mathematically impossible to create six majority-minority districts, and five is nearly impossible! However, Terry Collins did offer a very appropriate qualifier - that "with population changes" as many as six wards could be majority-minority. That's probably right - that in the next decade, the city could well be 46 percent minority. However, I'm told Redistricting Commissioners are not supposed to "predict the future" - which means they aren't supposed to draw some wards with smaller populations expected they will grow. (By the way, the judges on the state redistricting panel drew Congressional Districts so equal that every C.D. had identical 2000 Census populations - except one C.D. had one additional person!) There's an interesting debate over what constitutes a "minority opportunity ward" - a legal term about where minority voters can reasonably elect minority candidates. The figure can be pegged anywhere from 40 percent minority to over 50 percent, since minorities often (but not always) vote less than whites. We've lived in a city where most folks assume there are only two "minority opportunity districts" - the 5th Ward and the 8th Ward - with the possible addition of the 3rd Ward. When the Redistricting Commission releases their map on Tuesday, we'll likely have four such wards, with a fifth pretty darn close. David Brauer King Field - Ward 10 (though possibly Ward 8 or 11 soon) _______________________________________ Minneapolis Issues Forum - A Civil City Civic Discussion - Mn E-Democracy Post messages to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subscribe, Unsubscribe, Digest option, and more: http://e-democracy.org/mpls
