[Mpls] 3rd Ward Primary- Sly Di's Political Postmortem (Street Price=$.25)

[dyna]

Thanks Markus for posting the numbers here. There were few surprises here- the 3rd's body politic behaved as historically expected, with Northeast precincts having double the turnout of the Northside's. Don Samuels was hurt by low turnout on his side of the river, but even if Northside turnout had equaled Northeast's Don still would have run second, though by smaller margin.

What is amazing here is how a virtual political unknown, Olin Moore, has finished ahead of media darling Don Samuels. It is a compliment to the voters of the 3rd that they saw past the considerable media canonization Don has received and mostly preferred Olin Moore. Or looking at it another way one could argue that the union label and endorsement Olin carried was worth more than hours of major media exposure and a blizzard of lit(ter).

For those that didn't make the cut- well, I hope you folks at least had fun. Notable was the fact that nearly half the candidates didn't even get a vote for each dollar of their filing fee. DFL identified candidates pulled in something like 60% of the votes- does anyone remember a Republican winning the 3rd? Even with Log Cabin endorsement republican candidate Valdis Rozentals came in 3rd with about 15% of the vote. Trailing by 4 votes DFLer Margo Ashmore was only 78 votes behind Don Samuels- I suspect if Margo had spent as much as Don had she'd be headed for the general election instead of Don.

Drawing not quite 10% of the vote Shane Price provided further evidence that the Green Party is no longer a force in national or local politics. It is with some sadness that I watch the Green Party's departure from the world of major party status at midnight tonight. My mourning is somewhat relived by the promise of seeing many of the Green Party survivors in the DFL green caucuses though...

Prognostications for the general election:

This is Olin Moore's race to lose. Most of Margo Ashmore's support will go to Olin. Greens will largely support the more progressive candidate, Olin; While some Republicans may support Don Samuels for his "tough on crime" and anti union stance.

While some would theorize that the larger turnout in the general election will help Don, I suspect the historic 2/1 Northeast/Northside voter turnout will recur. Don may suffer from increased media scrutiny now that he has survived the primary- it would be wise for him to come clean and reveal just who's providing and paying for his printing ASAP. Don could switch to a union printer, but labor folks have long memories and probably wouldn't be swayed by such tokenism.

Let the serious campaigning begin!

Dyna Sluyter in Hawthorne

P1 210/992 = 21.17%  Olin = 71, Don = 18
P2 335/1589 = 21.08%  Olin = 101, Don = 20
P3 270/1872 = 14.42%  Olin = 58, Don = 24
P4 295/1655 = 17.82%  Olin = 97, Don = 26
P5 263/1202 = 21.88%  Olin = 59, Don = 37
P6 103/303 = 33.99%  Olin = 27, Don = 23

Northeast precincts 1476/7613 = 19.39%  Olin = 413, Don = 148

P7 142/1936 = 7.33%  Olin = 38, Don = 43
P8 157/1347 = 11.66%  Olin = 22, Don = 91
P9 171/1788 = 9.56%  Olin = 36, Don = 51
P10 115/1432 = 8.03%  Olin = 22, Don = 30

Northside precincts 585/6503 = 9.00%  Olin = 118, Don = 215

Overall turnout 2061/14116 = 14.60%  Olin = 531, Don = 363

Shane = 202, Margo = 295, Valdis = 299, Trish Shilling = 107

Fred Markus, Horn Terrace, Ward Ten, in the Lyndale Neighborhood

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