Here is an insightful article entitled "A Crude Shock" by Paul Krugman of the New York Times. It is also available online at:
http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0514-04.htm Krugman's discussion of our oil dependency is very brief and very optimistic -- although it may not appear optimistic to many readers. For in-depth analysis of global energy trends and the impact they have already had on us, I highly recommend Heinman's excellent work cited below. Try this thought experiment: Go to downtown Minneapolis. "Find a comfortable place to sit. Look around and ask yourself: Where and how is energy being used? What forms of energy are being consumed, and what work is that energy doing? Notice the details of buildings, cars, buses, street lights, and so on; notice also the activities of the people around you. What kinds of occupations do these people have, and how do they use energy in their work? Try to follow some strands of the web of relationships between energy, jobs, water, food, heating, construction, goods distribution, transportation, and maintenance together keep the city thriving. "...imagine what the scene you are viewing would look like if there were ten percent less energy available. What substitutions would be necessary? What choices would people make? What work would not get done? "Now imagine the scene with 25 percent less energy available; with 50 percent less; with 75 percent less. "Assuming that the peak in global oil production occurs at some point in the period from 2006 to 2015 and that there is an average 2 percent decline in net available energy each year afterward, in your imagination you will have taken a trip into the future, to perhaps the year 2050." The above thought experiment is from page 168 of Richard Heinberg's excellent book: "The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies" (New Society Publishers) has carefully documented his extensive research into our rapidly growing dependence on fossil fuels, and particularly on oil. Given the enourmous increase in world appetite for oil -- particularly from China -- we do not need to imagine production decreases to know that the days of cheap oil are over. However, if one looks at the analysis of the expert geologists who have done the research the oil companies and various governmental and NGOs rely on to understand many complex issues related to oil resource availability -- let alone global warming and other environmental issues -- one finds that we are in for a steady, dramatic decrease in total energy available. Between now and 2050, we will find less total btu's of energy available -- 2 percent or more each year -- coinciding with increasing energy demands. Much of the energy decline will come in the form of oil-related decline, affecting transportation most immkediately and directly. Another energy source which is in decline is natural gas, which we increasingly import from Canada. Already, energy companies are exploring ways to bring natural gas to us from Latin America -- at much increased cost. I wonder who is doing the energy supply and needs assessments for Minneapolis and our metro region, and who is planning our urban infrastructure related to this? Energy will not be cheaper in the future. It will be more expensive. The best energy sources will be local, diverse, and renewable. The best transportation infrastructure will be the most energy efficient. The best urban design will rely intensively on walkable, bikable communities linked by efficient mass transit. The analysis offered by Heinberg is very thorough, reviewing expert work from people on all sides of energy issues. Again, I recommend at least a few hours reading the book, if not all the way through. Minneapolis will be very different with more people and fewer energy resources in the coming years. -- pedaling for greater awareness.... -- Gary Hoover Kingfield REMINDERS: 1. Think a member has violated the rules? Email the list manager at [EMAIL PROTECTED] before continuing it on the list. 2. Don't feed the troll! Ignore obvious flame-bait. For state and national discussions see: http://e-democracy.org/discuss.html For external forums, see: http://e-democracy.org/mninteract ________________________________ Minneapolis Issues Forum - A City-focused Civic Discussion - Mn E-Democracy Post messages to: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Subscribe, Un-subscribe, etc. at: http://e-democracy.org/mpls
