Russell Raczkowski wrote: While Wizard Marks claims that, "Overall, the [Lake Street] PAC was unwilling to base it's decisions on speculation," they were willing to base decisions on projections of future traffic that don't accurately factor in costs of a gallon of gas and oil shortages. One persons's projection is another person's speculation, I suppose.
Meanwhile, there has been plenty of coverage of "the oil peak" and shortages that are looming in the next five to twenty years. Some links are below. While Wizard would have you believe that a bunch of local bike riders are making this stuff up, I would ask you to pay attention to the sources cited in these articles. They know of what they speak. Mark Anderson responds: I find it hard to believe that there are several people on the List who apparently think that auto use will decline precipitously in the next ten or twenty years because oil will run out, or it will be become too expensive for the average person to run them. I suppose it is mostly wishful thinking on the part of car-haters. I remember in the 60's a book called "The Population Bomb," and several other tracts with similar views published about the same time. These books essentially said that oil, food, and just about everything else would be running out in the next ten to twenty years, so we better watch out. They basically had us living in caves by 2004. Somehow we keep using up more and more resources, through discovery of new reserves, and finding new ways to achieve the same ends (the latter is particularly so in material science). But for the last forty years these books keep on coming out, and each one seems to develop a cadre of true believers, even as the previous ones are shown to be totally false. The sites Russell referenced were more of the same. I would be totally shocked if auto use did not continue growing for at least the next 100 years. The cost of running a car has increased constantly for the last 100 years, but personal income has grown faster. Even if this trend totally turns around and the cost of driving goes up faster than income, still almost everyone wants to drive, and they will continue to do so as long as they can. I saw in the paper this week that 2/3 of bus riders would drive if they could afford it. Auto usage will almost assuredly continue to increase for many years to come. I'm not saying that we shouldn't pay attention to the doom-sayers. I'm sure there are some valuable tidbits in their essays, and even some good suggestions for changes in our society. For example, I agree that gas taxes should be increased. But to take their radical conclusions seriously doesn't make sense. This discussion sounds like a non-Minneapolis topic. But it arose because several posters insisted that Lake Street needs little space because autos will soon become dinosaurs. I hope we take those views into consideration at the level they deserve. Mark V Anderson Bancroft REMINDERS: 1. Think a member has violated the rules? Email the list manager at [EMAIL PROTECTED] before continuing it on the list. 2. Don't feed the troll! Ignore obvious flame-bait. For state and national discussions see: http://e-democracy.org/discuss.html For external forums, see: http://e-democracy.org/mninteract ________________________________ Minneapolis Issues Forum - A City-focused Civic Discussion - Mn E-Democracy Post messages to: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Subscribe, Un-subscribe, etc. at: http://e-democracy.org/mpls
