I need to correct myself, thanks to the insight of a more politically experienced list member.
To recap: > Greg Abbott notes: > > > given that turnout in the general election will more than double, > > perhaps even triple, from the primary, drawing any conclusions from > > Tuesday's results is a fool's errand. Then I wrote: > I would be shocked if the vote tripled. In 2001, 59,000 folks voted in the > primary, 89,000 in the general - a 50 percent jump. > > Granted, this year's turnout (33,500) was a lot lower, so the bump may be > higher. But tripling this year's number would mean 100,000 general election > votes - 11,000 more than four years ago. The experienced operative remembered that '01 was a low-turnout general election, Even though we all remember the fascinating scrum of a primary, the general was apparently quite lackluster, historically. To wit: in the '97 general, 96,700 people voted. Only 30,000 people voted in the primary - so the vote total more than tripled in the general. In '93, 104,626 voted. 51,000 voted in the primary - a doubling between primary and general So ... '01 was an unusual year (out of the last three city elections anyway). Primary participation was far higher, and general election turnout was 10-15 percent lower. I have to conclude that a tripling could happen this year, and Greg was right to mention it as a possibility. David Brauer Kingfield REMINDERS: 1. Be civil! Please read the NEW RULES at http://www.e-democracy.org/rules. If you think a member is in violation, contact the list manager at [EMAIL PROTECTED] before continuing it on the list. 2. Don't feed the troll! Ignore obvious flame-bait. For state and national discussions see: http://e-democracy.org/discuss.html For external forums, see: http://e-democracy.org/mninteract ________________________________ Minneapolis Issues Forum - A Civil City-focused Civic Discussion - Mn E-Democracy Post messages to: mailto:mpls@mnforum.org Subscribe, Un-subscribe, etc. at: http://e-democracy.org/mpls
