I love this reasoning!! (snark) RT is head by 9 points in a poll 10 days before the election and this is bad news for his campaign. With 20 percent undecideds PMcL would have to capture 75 percent of the undecideds to win - an unheard of figure, especially given the fact that there has been no movement in this race since the Primary. Unless RT comes out in favor of Supreme Court Justice Nominee Alito or offers Scooter Libby a job in his administration, not a whole lot is going to change in the next week.
Dean E. Carlson East Harriet, Ward 10 ----- Original Message ----- From: Dyna <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Date: Monday, October 31, 2005 8:43 pm Subject: [Mpls] R.T. in Trouble: New Mayoral Poll > >Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak leads Hennepin County Commissioner > >Peter McLaughlin by the same margin he won the primary election, > >although one in five likely voters remains undecided, according > to a > >poll released late Sunday. > > R.T. needs to be above 50 percent now- in Pol Sci 101 you > learn that undecideds will break with the challenger, IF they vote. > > >According to the University of Minnesota poll, 44 percent of > likely > >voters said they would vote for Rybak while 35 percent would vote > >for McLaughlin. > > Sly Di's polling rule of thumb: If the margin between the > candidates is less than the margin of error plus 1% for each day > between the poll and the election, the race is competitive. This > race > is within the margin of error and the polls don't even open for a > week yet. > > >"The race is more open than I thought. A fifth of the voters > haven't > >made up their mind. Usually that's because they have doubts about > >the incumbent," said Larry Jacobs, director of the Humphrey > >Institute's Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at > the > >university. > > Well said! > > >Rybak expressed satisfaction with the poll while McLaughlin said > he > >hadn't seen it, but knew enough about it to dismiss it. > > Trying to put a happy face on it? > > >McLaughlin said the sample of 371 likely voters was too small, in > >his judgment, to provide meaningful results. > > Peter is correct, especially in a low turn out election where > maybe half those "likely voters" will actually vote. > > >But the poll showed that only 27 percent of the city's likely > voters > >are union members. Of those, 33 percent said they would vote for > >Rybak while 49 percent would vote for McLaughlin and 18 percent > were > >undecided. > > Clearly the endorsement has given Peter a 20 point advantage > among this demographic. > > >"It's a stark picture of how far labor has fallen," Jacobs said. > >"The traditional DFL coalition is no longer a powerhouse in > >Minneapolis." > > Actually it's more a reflection of the number of living wage > union jobs we've lost in Minneapolis on R.T.'s watch. > > >The survey was conducted for the institute's 2005 Elections > Project > >by the University of Connecticut. Some 884 adults were polled by > >telephone from Oct. 17-29, producing a sample of 371 likely > voters. > >The poll has a margin of error of 5.1 percentage points. > > Wish they would have surveyed a bigger sample- with that big > a MOE in a low turnout off year election the predictive validity > of > the survey is pretty compromised. But none the less it's still not > good news for R.T. Looks like the Strib is doing a "Minnesota > Poll" > on this race, taken together that may give us a more valid result, > assuming they weren't calling from the same list. BTW, the Stribs > polling firm needs to train they're surveyors better- I had to > explain to him how to do the interview! > > handicappin' 'em from Hawthorne, > > Dyna Sluyter > REMINDERS: > 1. Be civil! Please read the NEW RULES at http://www.e- > democracy.org/rules. If you think a member is in violation, > contact the list manager at [EMAIL PROTECTED] before continuing it > on the list. > > 2. Don't feed the troll! Ignore obvious flame-bait. > > For state and national discussions see: http://e- > democracy.org/discuss.htmlFor external forums, see: http://e- > democracy.org/mninteract________________________________ > > Minneapolis Issues Forum - A Civil City-focused Civic Discussion - > Mn E-Democracy > Post messages to: mailto:[email protected] > Subscribe, Un-subscribe, etc. at: http://e-democracy.org/mpls > REMINDERS: 1. Be civil! Please read the NEW RULES at http://www.e-democracy.org/rules. If you think a member is in violation, contact the list manager at [EMAIL PROTECTED] before continuing it on the list. 2. Don't feed the troll! Ignore obvious flame-bait. For state and national discussions see: http://e-democracy.org/discuss.html For external forums, see: http://e-democracy.org/mninteract ________________________________ Minneapolis Issues Forum - A Civil City-focused Civic Discussion - Mn E-Democracy Post messages to: mailto:[email protected] Subscribe, Un-subscribe, etc. at: http://e-democracy.org/mpls
