On Nov 2, 2005, at 8:57 AM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

Some interesting ideas here but I think ultimately the finaly analysis
is wrong.  By "wealthy areas" I think the writer means the 7th, 10th,
11th, and 13th wards, which have historically had the highest turnout
and Wards RT rode to victory in 2001 and appears to be doing the same
in 2005.  I don't see that changing.

It's true that RT's electoral base is in those wards (almost half his margin over Peter came in Ward 13). However, it's worth noting that Rybak also outpolled McLaughlin in Wards 2, 6 and 8, too.

Also FYI, the recent turnout champ is Ward 12, in the city's far southeast corner. They topped all city wards in 2004 and finished third this time. While Ward 13 was the primary turnout champ, it was a surprising 6th out of 13 in 2004.

Just for fun ...

Turnout, 2005 primary
Ward 13,  22%
Ward 8,  20%
Wards 12 & 9, 17%
Ward 10, 16%
Wards 7 & 11, 14%
Wards 1 & 2, 13%
Wards 3 & 6, 11%
Wards 4 & 5, 8%

Turnout, 2004 general
Ward 12, 81%
Ward 11, 80%
Ward 1, 75%
Wards 4 & 8, 71%
Ward 13, 70%
Ward 9, 69%
Ward 7, 68%
Ward 10, 67%
Ward 3, 65%
Ward 2, 62%
Ward 5, 61%
Ward 6, 58%

David Brauer
Kingfield
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