I have to disagree with some of Deans points. He and many of his neighbors I know agree with civil rights, diversity issues, small business concerns, and immigrant rights, but I don't think they will vote just on those issues, or that they are the most important issues to them. That's why these issues are rarely addressed in this list or in the mayor?s campaigns unless they're brought up by people of color. Once more I know there are plenty of exceptions to this generalization, but it seems like the trend.
The main reason I disagree with Dean, (although I think we probably agree on most issues) is that people of color, particularly immigrants and Latinos, are going to continue to grow at a rather faster rate than the expensive condo buyers (one of the things I learned in my previous career as an investment advisor was do be skeptical of investment bubbles, and the current real estate bubble won't last forever). A lot of immigrants kids that were born in the US are reaching voting age, or immigrants that have been in the US for a long time are becoming citizens (the most recent trend in Latinos moving to Minneapolis is from Latinos moving from Texas, Chicago and California that have lived in the US for over 10 years as opposed to the previous wave that came directly from Latin America) Most of the growth is going to happen in the "not so wealthy" wards although the 7th, 10th 11th and 13th wards are also growing in populations of color (I live in the 11th close to Bossen Park, where we've seen a huge growth in the number of Latinos living in the apartment buildings by the park). Also some of the expensive condo buyers are people of color. We will also most likely see more credible Latino, Somali and African American and Native candidates for city council in the next eight years that will motivate more people of color to vote. I'm not sure why, but Rybak seems to have a real problem with voters of color. The leadership of African American and Latino communities seems to be overwhelmingly against Rybak. But he also seems to have real problems with Minority voters. Even in the latest Strib poll that spells real bad news for the McLaughlin campaign he's in a dead heat with Rybak with minority voters and north residents. As a matter of fact that?s about the only group Rybak has a problem with other than with conservatives. Rybak's strategy is working this year, but won't work as well in the future, unless he or other candidates pay more attention to issues that really matter to voters of color. Orange county California was once mentioned as the most Republican county in the country and had a very anti-immigrant right wing congressman in the nineties. He got defeated by a Latina democrat. Republicans never paid attention to the trends there. Los Angeles recently elected a Latino mayor. Latinos make 46% of residents but only about 25% of voters in L.A. and contrary to the general perception of L.A. there are strong anti-immigrant feelings in the city, and it is probably one of the toughest cities to elect a Latino for mayor. People who ignored these trends committed the political mistake that future Minneapolis politicians will make if they ignore the trends in their city. Most Minneapolis politicians were shocked when they saw the Minneapolis census figures in 2000 showing the growth of Latinos. Gente de Minnesota was not. We were interviewed by the Strib before the census figures came out and we predicted it. Politicians will be even more shocked after the 2010 census. Gente de Minnesota will not. McLaughlin seems to be getting very little results from his labor endorsements. Rybak seems to be getting a lot from his Sierra Club endorsement and a perception among many voters that he's fiscally responsible, to be trusted on holding the line in taxes, and socially liberal. But he's doing badly with minority voters. I'll save these e-mails and check them back during the 2013 mayoral election and see who was right. A candidate like Rybak will have a very hard time running in 2013, specially if they have an opponent of color who is fiscally conservative, endorsed by the Sierra Club, opposed to tax hikes, liberal on social issues and good on civil rights, immigrant rights, diversity issues, and small business concerns, and who won't spend too much time on labor endorsements. I hope that if Rybak wins on Tuesday (I'm not sure I buy the Strib poll) I hope he'll take a good look at why he's doing so badly with minority voters, and try to mend fences. From what I know of him, I believe he's a good person, and he will do this, instated of being angry at our communities for not supporting him. Date: Wed, 02 Nov 2005 08:57:20 -0600 From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Re: [Mpls] Who's got the voting power in Minneapolis To: [email protected] Message-ID: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Some interesting ideas here but I think ultimately the finaly analysis is wrong. By "wealthy areas" I think the writer means the 7th, 10th, 11th, and 13th wards, which have historically had the highest turnout and Wards RT rode to victory in 2001 and appears to be doing the same in 2005. I don't see that changing. The writer states, I think correctly, that future "Winning candidates will need to talk more about the environment and other green issues, will need to be very liberal on social issues, more conservative on fiscal issues, while at the same very much in touch with and vocal on civil rights, diversity issues, small business concerns, and immigrant rights. Labor issues will become less talked about. Taxes will get harder to raise." To me that message would appeal directly to the the residents of the "wealthy areas" and as a resident of the 10th Ward, I would gladly and enthusiastically support a candidate who addressed those issues. I would think my neighbors, church members, and fellow parents of school age kids would act likewise. In short the candidate that can speak best to those issues is the candidate who will continue to do well in the 7th, 10th, 11th, and 13th Wards. Based on voting participation, that will be enough to win City-wide. I see the historical patterns not only prevailing in future elections, but also hardening. Whether you agree with the candidate or not, RT has shown that this is the way to win a majority of the vote in a City- wide election. It's hard to see a different coalition arising to to challenge it. Dean E. Carlson Ward 10, East Harriet REMINDERS: 1. Be civil! Please read the NEW RULES at http://www.e-democracy.org/rules. If you think a member is in violation, contact the list manager at [EMAIL PROTECTED] before continuing it on the list. 2. Don't feed the troll! Ignore obvious flame-bait. For state and national discussions see: http://e-democracy.org/discuss.html For external forums, see: http://e-democracy.org/mninteract ________________________________ Minneapolis Issues Forum - A Civil City-focused Civic Discussion - Mn E-Democracy Post messages to: mailto:[email protected] Subscribe, Un-subscribe, etc. at: http://e-democracy.org/mpls
