So, as a budding numbers geek (thanks a lot Carol),
I've been parsing the Ward 2 results this morning, and
I thought I'd chime in with some of my conclusions.
Conclusion One: Rybak and Gordon's fortunes in the
Ward were linked.
During last night's election coverage, RT stated that
his efforts at the University produced an 80% win for
him, and that they may have "inadvertently" affected
the city council race between Cara Letofsky and Cam
Gordon. So the first thing I set out to look at was
whether there were "RT Coattails" in Ward 2.
Ward 2 was very close in the Primary between Rybak and
McLaughlin. In fact, it was definitely one of the
Wards that had to be viewed as an opportunity ward for
the McLaughlin Campaign. In aggregate, the primary
vote totals from the ward were:
Rybak 924
McLaughlin 921
Hakeem 465
But after the general election, the totals were:
Rybak 3045
McLaughlin 1716
Write-in 136
How did RT Rybak go from a dead heat to a slam dunk?
Well, he won nearly every precinct in the ward, and
even in the one he lost (W2P10), he gained more votes
than McLaughlin from the primary to the general.
Rybak Net Gain
W2P1:181, W2P2:333, W2P3:69, W2P4:61, W2P5:158,
W2P6:102, W2P7:47, W2P8:42, W2P9:169, W2P10:37,
W2P11:7
The gains in P1 (Seward) and P2 (Cooper) are pretty
hefty, but they are the highest turnout precincts (45
and 55 percent respectively). The P5 (Prospect Park),
P6 (East River Road), and P9 (Cedar Riverside)gains
are really impressive in that only about 1400 people
voted between the three precincts (with a net gain of
429 for Rybak.) But P2 was a near dead heat in the
primary and turned out in droves for Rybak, and in the
biggest (by percentage) turnout precinct in the city.
P2 is also Cara Letofsky's home precinct, and while it
was huge for her in the primary (405-242), in the
general it split almost 50-50 (589-584 Letofsky). This
was one of many crucial differences between the
primary and general election that changed the results.
Cam Gordon had a net gain of voters in all but two
precincts in the ward and the biggest gain was in
W2P2.
Net Gain for Gordon (negative numbers are net Letofsky
gains)
W2P1:98, W2P2:158, W2P3:18, W2P4:57, W2P5:49,
W2P6:106, W2P7:43, W2P8:(-3), W2P9:20, W2P10:(-58),
W2P11:62
While the U of M influenced precincts (4,5,11) were
good for Gordon and Rybak, the real gains were made in
Seward and Cooper, where very high turnouts made for
dramatic swings in fortune for both McLaughlin and
Letofsky. In short, it was the fact that Letofsky
didn't hold her substantial lead in P2 that was one of
the biggest factors in the race.
I'm not sure I agree with Rybak's assertion of
coattails (and to be fair, it wasn't just him - our
list manager, I believe, suggested this correlation
more broadly as a potential reason for the Hodges,
Glidden and Samuels wins as well.) But there were
definite correlations between where Rybak and Gordon
gained - but disentangling causative meaning from
these correlations would be virtually impossible.
I'm slowly sifting through and entering data from
other Wards, and if it is interesting to folks, I'd be
happy to share.
Congratulations to Cam Gordon and Cara Letofsky, who
both ran above board campaigns that really represent
excellent examples of how campaigns should be
conducted.
best,
aaron klemz
A shout out to my neighbors in Cooper for once again
turning out to vote in a big, big way. P2 comprised
nearly 24% of all votes cast in Ward 2.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
"I am not sure what a revolution in the academy will look like, any more than I
know what a revolution in the society will look like. I doubt that it will take
the form of some great cataclysmic event. More likely, it will be a process,
with periods of tumult and of quiet, in which we will, here and there, by ones
and twos and tens, create pockets of concern inside old institutions,
transforming them from within. There is no great day of reckoning to work
toward. Rather, we must begin _now_ to liberate those patches of ground on
which we stand - to "vote" for a new world (as Thoreau suggested) with our
whole selves all the time, rather than in moments carefully selected by others."
- Howard Zinn, "The Uses of Scholarship"
Aaron Klemz, Minneapolis, Minnesota
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
__________________________________
Start your day with Yahoo! - Make it your home page!
http://www.yahoo.com/r/hs
REMINDERS:
1. Be civil! Please read the NEW RULES at http://www.e-democracy.org/rules. If
you think a member is in violation, contact the list manager at [EMAIL
PROTECTED] before continuing it on the list.
2. Don't feed the troll! Ignore obvious flame-bait.
For state and national discussions see: http://e-democracy.org/discuss.html
For external forums, see: http://e-democracy.org/mninteract
________________________________
Minneapolis Issues Forum - A Civil City-focused Civic Discussion - Mn
E-Democracy
Post messages to: mailto:mpls@mnforum.org
Subscribe, Un-subscribe, etc. at: http://e-democracy.org/mpls
